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Semua Berita

Quick Brief – US labour market data boosts both the dollar and stocks

Non-farm payrolls jump by 254k, a 6-month highUnemployment dips and hourly earnings surprise to the upsideDollar benefits, US stocks also bounce higherThe September non-farm payrolls report printed at 254k, a 6-month high, and well above forecasts for a 140k increase. With the August print revised slightly higher to 159k, the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% and the average hourly earnings growth jumping to 4%, one could say the latest set of labour market data was unexpectedly strong. The ch
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Technical Analysis – Ethereum’s retreat pauses at the 2,380 area

Cryptos remain under pressure as risk-off sentiment lingersEthereum is trading below its 50-day SMAMomentum indicators are mixed at this stageEthereum is recording a green session today, recovering somewhat after six consecutive negative days as the developments in the Middle East dented demand for risky assets. It is hovering below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) with the recent bullish trend remaining intact and supported by a series of higher highs and higher lows.In the meantime, the
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD plummets beneath 0.6200

NZDUSD loses significant groundStochastic suggests oversold marketRSI still falls furtherNZDUSD has been plunging below 0.6200 since it peaked at 0.6380, losing almost 3% and penetrating the short-term uptrend line to the downside. The stochastic dived towards the oversold region but is currently ticking marginally higher, suggesting the end of the
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Week Ahead – As the dollar recovers, spotlight falls on US CPI inflation

US CPI data to guide Fed rate cut bets and the dollarRBNZ expected to cut interest rates by 50bps Wounded pound awaits monthly GDP numbersCanada jobs data and BoC business survey also on tabDollar rebounds on safe haven flows and upbeat dataThe US dollar staged a meaningful recovery this week aided by Fed Chair Powell’s remarks that the US central bank would likely stick with quarter-point rate cuts, adding that they are not “in a hurry”, as new data have bolstered their confidence in the
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Technical Analysis – USDCAD holds on recovery action as NFP report awaited

USDCAD returns above 20-day EMA and familiar constraining lineTechnical signals cannot warrant a meaningful rallySeptember’s US nonfarm payrolls due at 12:30 GMTUSDCAD continued its upward movement from a seven-month low of 1.3418, surpassing its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the constraining ascending line from the 2021 low.The range of 1.3580-1.3620, which encapsulates the 50- and 200-day EMAs as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downleg is the next target
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USDCHF battles with downtrend line and 50-day SMAMACD and RSI keep upside momentumUSDCHF has been trading in a narrow range between the 0.8400 support and the 0.8540 resistance, which is in alignment with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the resistance trendline from July 2.The bullish divergence in the RSI and MACD remains a source of op
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Daily Comment – Will the dollar or stocks smile after the non-farm payrolls print?

Spotlight falls on the key US labour market dataNon-farm payrolls to rise by 140k, but could surprise to the upsideDollar to enjoy a strong set of data, equities prefer weaker printsEuro suffering continues, while both gold and oil advanceCould the US labour market data produce a surprise?The countdown to the most crucial set of US data during October is nearly over.
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Technical Analysis – AUDUSD pauses bullish rally for a while

AUDUSD may find support at 0.6800Stochastic and RSI suggest more declinesAUDUSD has found strong resistance at the 20-month high of 0.6940 and is retreating towards the immediate 20-day simple moving average at 0.6800.The technical oscillators currently confirm the recent bearish correction. Following the pullback from the overbought area, the stochastic oscillator is moving lower, while the RSI is moving horizontally slightly above the neutral threshold of 50.A move to the downside could drive
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Quick brief – ISM non-mfg PMI beats forecasts, Biden comments on Iran’s oil facilities

ISM non-mfg PMI rises faster than expected in September; employment index declinesBiden alleges that Israel is preparing to carry out attacks on Iran’s oil sites The ISM non-manufacturing PMI survey indicated growth for the third straight month in September, with the index reaching 54.9 - the highest reading since February 2023 - surpassing analysts’ expectations of 51.7 and August’s reading of 51.4.The new orders index saw a significant increase of over 6 points to reach 59.4, while the
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Stocks at a precarious position ahead of key US data – Stock Markets

Equity indices enjoyed a decent third quarter, led by Chinese stocksS&P 500 completed five consecutive positive monthsQ3 earnings announcements to gradually take centre stageUS equity indices look vulnerable at this stage Stocks fared decently in Q3, outlook is challenging The third quarter (Q3) of 2024 was a plentiful one, with the key central banks finally embarking on their monetary policy easing journey.
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Technical Analysis – Bitcoin in a slippery mode within SMAs

Bitcoin battles with 60,200 areaRSI implies further decreasesBitcoin prices have been falling since they peaked at 66,450 and have been hovering within the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) over the last couple of days. If the market continues to dive, then immediate support could come from the 57,600 support level ahead of the 52,470 barrier, registered on September 7.On the other hand, if the market successfully climbs above the 100-day SMA, it may re-challenge the 200-day SMA, wh
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD plummets below 1.3100

GBPUSD posts bearish correction from 2½-year highTechnical oscillators show negative momentumGBPUSD has been plunging more than 1% so far today, dropping beneath the 1.3100 round number. The two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3433 acted as a turning point to the market, sending the price down to meet the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3065. Even lower, the 1.3000 critical level may halt downside pressure.
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Midweek Technical Look – Gold, GBPUSD, EURGBP

Gold flatlines ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report; bulls are still in town GBPUSD sinks after BoE signals aggressive rate cutsEURGBP turns swiftly up within a bearish channel
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Daily Comment – Dollar extends gains on upbeat US data

Dollar gains as ADP jobs report beats estimatesYen falls on prime minister Ishiba’s dovish remarksPound collapses after BoE’s Bailey warns about faster cutsWall Street virtually unchanged, gold retreats, oil extends gainsUS data allow dollar to extend latest recoveryThe dollar extended its gains against its major peers on Wednesday and during the Asian session Thursday.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD retreats below short-term uptrend line

NZDUSD pulls back from its 15-month topStochastic tumbles to oversold regionRSI falls near 50 levelNZDUSD lost more than 2% following the pullback from the 15-month high of 0.6380, flirting with the short-term ascending trend line and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA).In the previous days, the 50- and 200-day SMAs posted a bullish crossover, but the market is currently retreating, taking the technical oscillators lower.
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Could Friday’s data tip the balance in favour of a 50bps Fed rate cut? – Preview

 Discussions about the size of the November Fed rate cut continueMixed labour market data up to now with ADP surprising on the upsideFriday’s data matters the most; non-farm payrolls seen rising by 140kGeopolitics boost demand for dollar, data could reverse this trend Fed rate cut discussions continueWith the market trying to figure out the next development in the Middle East and the likely market impact, the debate about the size of the November Fed rate cut continues.
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Technical Analysis – Will WTI oil futures continue higher?

WTI oil futures bounce up but not meaningfullyTechnical risks favor the bulls; resistance at 73.00-74.00WTI oil futures jumped back to the 70 territory after Iran fired around 200 ballistic missiles towards Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on Tuesday, reminding investors that the tensions in the Middle East could escalate further before the situation improves.Despite the bullish correction, the price could not overcome the support-turned-into-resistance zone of 71.95 and the descending trendline from Ju
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Technical Analysis – EURUSD bounces off short-term uptrend line

EURUSD's double top pattern continuesRSI tries to move upBut stochastic eases towards oversold areaEURUSD is resting near the short-term uptrend line around the 1.1070 support level after the aggressive selling interest from the 1.1200-1.1215 resistance region. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is heading south towards the oversold zone; h
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Daily Comment – Safe havens gain, stocks slip as Iran attacks Israel

Iran fires missiles at Israel in retaliation moveDollar, yen and gold attract safe-haven flowsOil rebounds on supply concernsWall Street pulls back ahead of key US dataDollar turns into safe have as Iran attacks IsraelAfter Powell’s boost on Monday, the dollar extended its gains against most of its peers on Tuesday, with the only currency resisting the dollar’s strength being the Japanese yen.Having said that though, the catalyst wasn’t receding bets about a back-to-back double rate cut by
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Gold moves within 2,625-2,673Technical oscillators look flatGold prices have been moving sideways since the end of September, with the mid-level 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at 2,647. The price declined from the 2,673 resistance, but the broader outlook remains positive. The MACD and the RSI indicators are holding slightly above the zero a
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