Bank of Italy sees govt's 1% 2024 GDP target hard to reach
Adds budget watchdog UPB
By Giuseppe Fonte
ROME, Oct 7 (Reuters) -The Italian government's 1% economic growth target for this year will be more difficult to reach after downward revisions made last week by national statistics bureau ISTAT, the country's central bank and budget watchdog UPBsaid on Monday.
The revisions mean "a mechanical downwards correction by 0.2 percentage points to the (government) estimate for the current year," the Bank of Italy's head of economics, Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, said in testimony to parliament.
All else being equal, this means 2024 gross domestic product growth in the euro zone's third largest economy would come in at 0.8% rather than the 1% government target set last month.
UPB chairman Lilia Cavallari said in her testimony that 2024 growth would probably fall short of the official goal by at least two tenths of a percentage point.
ISTAT on Friday lowered the year-on-year GDP growth rates for the first and second quarters and said so-called "acquired growth" at the end of the second quarter stood at 0.4%, down from the 0.6% estimated prior to the revisions.
As a result, if there were to be zero quarterly growth in the third and fourth quarters, full-year growth would come in at 0.4% from the previous year.
The Treasury's multi-year budget plan published in September forecast growth of 1.2%in 2025 and 1.1% the following year, but both the Bank of Italy and UPB warned the estimates were subject to possibledownside risks.
The central bank called for a prudent approach to public finances, saying a steadily falling debt-to-GDP ratio should be a priority.
Italyis targeting this year's budget deficit at 3.8% of GDP, down sharply from 7.2% posted last year which was the highest in the 20-nation euro zone.
After declining to a projected 3.3% of GDP next year, the deficit is targeted at 2.8% in 2026, below the EU's 3% ceiling.
Under current trends, the government estimates that the deficit is on course for lower ratios of 2.9% of GDP in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, allowing some leeway for additional spending measures or tax cuts.
However, the Bank of Italy warned that small deviations from the government's plan could make it difficult to bring the deficit below the EU's 3% of GDP ceiling in 2026, as pledged.
Reporting by Giuseppe Fonte, editing by Gavin Jones
Berita Terkini
Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
