China’s consumers regain some lost lustre
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.
By Katrina Hamlin
HONG KONG, Oct 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) -Investors panning for consumption bright spots in the world's second-largest economy will find a bit of good news from this year's Golden Week. Average daily cross-border travel is forecast to rise 19% from last year, above pre-Covid volumes, per official estimates. Gamblers have also returned to Macau. More middle-class spending will stir hopes that Beijing's stimulus might gain traction.
Wealthier travellers were definitely on the move. On the very first day of China's week-long holiday celebrating the founding of the People's Republic, trips abroad rose 40% from last year, HSBC research noted. Long-haul flights topped pre-pandemic levels, online travel agency Trip.com's 9961.HK advanced bookings showed, including a 30% spike in European travel. International travellers spent 120% more using accounts enabled through an international card, according to mobile-wallet service Alipay
Meanwhile, in Macau the numbers of visitors from the mainland rose 6% from 2019 levels during the first three days of the break, per CLSA. Total wagers in the so-called premium mass segment - the higher-end of the mass market -hit a record high even though bets per person were slightly down, according to a Citi survey, thanks to the overall volume of guests.
These early trends indicate China's middle class may be more willing to loosen their purse strings than previously thought. Amid slowing growth and a property downturn, domestic demand has remained anaemic for much of the year: retail sales rose only 2.1% in August, missing analyst forecasts of 2.5%. Indeed,in Hong Kong, once a popular destination for mainland shoppers, the city's Retail Management Association said the number of visitors from across the border during Golden Weekwas “like a normal weekend”. The mainland box office, another closely-watched indicator during the holiday, was slower than last year, with ticket sales hitting the 1 billion yuan ($143 million) mark a day later than in 2023.
The mixed data suggests that consumption may be perking up in certain pockets of the population. Spending habits are also changing, as travellers eschew splurging on material goods in favour of experiences, Alipay suggested.
Still, Beijing will be grateful for even a partial revival. Right before the holidays, officials unveiled a sweeping package of monetary and property easing measures, and signalled more to come. Hopes of a significant fiscal spending havefuelled a 25% rally in Hong Kong's benchmark index. Signs that China's consumers are regaining some confidence will help add to the momentum.
Follow @KatrinaHamlin on X
CONTEXT NEWS
Outbound travel rose around 40% year-on-year on Oct. 1, the first day of a week-long public holiday to mark China’s National Day, according to online bookings agency Trip.com data cited in an HSBC research note.
The number of visitors coming to Macau on Oct. 1 to Oct. 3 was 478,713, 5% higher than in 2019, and more than a fifth above last year’s levels, according a note from CLSA on Oct. 4. The number of mainland visitors was up 6% over the same period.
China reported a record number of trips on its railway network on Oct. 1, the first day of the holidays, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 2.
Long-haul flights were set to increase compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, Trip.com said on Sept. 25, citing their advanced bookings.
Graphic: Chinese consumers' confidence hovers near a record low https://reut.rs/3YaAA74
Editing by Robyn Mak and Aditya Srivastav
Berita Terkini
Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
