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Currencies steady after selloff, forint fragile



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Currencies steady after selloff, forint fragile</title></head><body>

By Krisztina Than

BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) -Central European currencies mostly traded slightly firmer on Thursday after a selloff in the previous session driven by jitters about the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The dollar got a boost as investors no longer expect an outsized 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, a view that is reflected in rising Treasury yields.

The dollar was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.

"There is a little bit of recovery in CEE3 today, euro/dollar is bouncing higher from the lows so there is some relief," said a Warsaw-based FX trader.

By 0838 GMT, the zloty EURPLN= was up 0.15% against the euro at 4.341, while the Hungarian forint EURHUF=, which has been the region's poorest performer with a 4.8% fall this year, was steady, hovering near its levels around 403 hit on Wednesday.

"Emerging market currencies weakened substantially yesterday while the dollar firmed," brokerage Equilor said in a note, adding that even though local markets in Hungary were closed, the forint also fell past 403 to the euro in illiquid trading, hitting its lowest level since January 2023.

The forint's weakness forced the National Bank of Hungary to pause its rate cuts at its meeting on Tuesday.

Even after cuts totalling 11.5 percentage points since May 2023, Hungary's benchmark interest rate at 6.5% is the highest in the European Union, with the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) heading for what could be an extended pause in rate cuts.

"Given the importance the NBH places on exchange rate developments, we continue to believe the level of the Forint continues to act as the 'binding constraint' on the pace of rate reduction," Goldman Sachs said in a note this week.

On Friday, ratings agency Standard and Poor's is expected to release its review of Hungary's debt ratings and the wait for that has kept investors cautious.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.17% firmer at 25.23.

"The Czech crown is in slightly defensive mode, but the uncertainty before the US election is clearly affecting it significantly less than the forint or zloty. The currency pair thus remains in the 25.20-25.30 range EUR/CZK," CSOB analysts said in a note.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1025 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.2300

25.2740

+0.17%

-2.09%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

402.5500

402.8500

+0.07%

-4.81%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3410

4.3475

+0.15%

+0.08%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9734

4.9743

+0.02%

+0.02%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9600

117.0600

+0.09%

+0.24%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1639.87

1639.8100

+0.00%

+15.97%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

74052.55

73846.09

+0.28%

+22.16%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2270.39

2256.21

+0.63%

-3.10%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17464.98

17442.24

+0.13%

+13.62%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4440

-0.0340

+136bps

+2bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7670

-0.0450

+170bps

+0bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.0430

-0.0250

+177bps

+2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.9660

-0.1670

+288bps

-11bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.4520

-0.0620

+338bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.8270

-0.0510

+355bps

-1bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.82

3.57

3.43

4.11


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.85

6.20

6.46

6.40


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.68

5.26

4.83

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************






Reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest; Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Alan Charlish in Warsaw., Editing by Barbara Lewis

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