FX shrugs off larger than usual Fed rate cut
By Alan Charlish
WARSAW, Sept 19 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were little changed on Thursday, remaining in their recent ranges after the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to start its easing cycle with a larger than usual interest rate cut.
The Fed lowered its window for the benchmark policy rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, as expected by many traders.
"The most important storyline for CEE is definitely yesterday's jumbo-sized rate cut from the Fed," said Peter Virovacz, senior economist at ING in Hungary.
"Altogether it seems markets don't necessarily believe the Fed dot plot, which suggests only 50 basis points of easing in total for the remainder of the year, the market is pricing in rather 70ish basis points, as a result the dollar is weakening a bit... and it gives CEE a kind of stability."
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.05% weaker against the euro at 394.65. The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.10% softer at 25.081 and the Polish zloty EURPLN= shed 0.09% to trade at 4.2655.
A Warsaw-based trader said he would have expected the big rate cut to help CEE currencies but this had not been the case.
"I guess this decision was pretty much in the market already, it was discounted," the trader said.
In central Europe, attention is now turning to an interest rate decision in Hungary scheduled for Tuesday.
"Maybe the forint is going to be a bit weaker, the market might be expecting some more dovish rhetoric from the central bank after this jumbo-sized Fed rate cut as the central bank of Hungary mentioned on several occasions that they are focussing on major central banks decisions," said Virovacz.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1108 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0810 | 25.0560 | -0.10% | -1.51% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.6500 | 394.4500 | -0.05% | -2.91% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2655 | 4.2695 | +0.09% | +1.85% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9750 | 4.9750 | +0.00% | -0.01% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0000 | 117.0600 | +0.05% | +0.21% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1575.53 | 1567.8700 | +0.49% | +11.42% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 72673.05 | 72768.53 | -0.13% | +19.88% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2330.70 | 2326.69 | +0.17% | -0.52% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17569.72 | 17479.72 | +0.51% | +14.30% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2360 | -0.0150 | +098bps | +0bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4240 | 0.0420 | +135bps | +4bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7100 | 0.0090 | +151bps | +0bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6260 | -0.0460 | +237bps | -4bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9600 | -0.0670 | +289bps | -7bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2900 | -0.0540 | +309bps | -7bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.81 | 3.41 | 3.10 | 4.31 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.51 | 6.09 | 5.64 | 6.45 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.28 | 4.64 | 5.86 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Reporting by Alan Charlish
Editing by Mark Potter
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