FX slightly weaker as rate decisions come into focus
PRAGUE, July 29 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies mostly eased on Monday in light trading, with focus turned to a Federal Reserve meeting this week along with a Czech central bank meeting likely to confirm slower interest rate cuts.
The Fed is widely expected to set the stage for a September rate cut. The start of U.S. interest rate reductions would generally benefit emerging market currencies, like in central Europe, due to dollar outflows.
"In our opinion, the Fed meeting itself does not have to cause much volatility, because the data published so far, as well as the communication of Fed members, suggest no change in interest rates at the next meeting and maintaining expectations for a cut in September," Bank Millennium said in a note.
Currencies gave up some gains seen at the end of last week on Monday. The Polish zloty EURPLN= led losses, falling 0.3% to 4.2875 to the euro but was still near multi-year highs around the 4.25 level.
In the Czech Republic, the crown EURCZK= hovered around 25.37 per euro after touching a five-month low of 25.453 last week.
Markets are watching whether the Czech National Bank will shift its easing pace down to standard 25-basis-point steps when it meets on Thursday, following four straight 50-bp cuts.
The bank had signalled a slowdown after its June meeting but below-forecast inflation and a vice-governor's comments on not ruling out another 50-bp move have raised some uncertainty. Analysts in a Reuters poll on Friday, though, all forecast a 25-bp cut.
"We see a 25-basis point cut to 4.50% as the more likely scenario, due to the persistent cautiousness of the majority of the board," Erste Group Bank said.
Central banks in the European Union's emerging east have all eased monetary policy since last year, in varying degrees. Rates are still falling in Hungary, while they are on pause in Poland and Romania has only started its easing cycle.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= fell 0.1% to 391.60 the euro to start the week, and Romania's leu EURRON= also drifted.
Preliminary Hungarian and Czech gross domestic product data from the second quarter is due on Tuesday, which will give more clues on how a consumer-driven rebound is progressing. Lower inflation has boosted households' spending, after the surge in consumer prices of recent years.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1233 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3700 | 25.3620 | -0.03% | -2.64% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 391.6000 | 391.2500 | -0.09% | -2.15% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2875 | 4.2740 | -0.31% | +1.33% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9719 | 4.9711 | -0.02% | +0.05% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0300 | 117.0500 | +0.02% | +0.18% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1603.42 | 1597.8400 | +0.35% | +13.39% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73543.83 | 73174.10 | +0.51% | +21.32% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2409.47 | 2407.15 | +0.10% | +2.84% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18538.25 | 18562.57 | -0.13% | +20.60% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5640 | -0.0620 | +092bps | -4bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6090 | -0.0440 | +132bps | -1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7360 | -0.0710 | +138bps | -2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0540 | 0.0150 | +241bps | +4bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4260 | -0.0620 | +314bps | -2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6060 | -0.0510 | +325bps | +0bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.08 | 3.75 | 3.47 | 4.56 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.29 | 6.01 | 5.69 | 6.61 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.82 | 5.68 | 5.36 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Toby Chopra
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