FX weakens in rangebound trade, eyes on data
PRAGUE, Sept 3 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies weakened a touch on Tuesday, stuck in tight ranges while taking in a new round of economic figures and waiting on U.S. data this week that may point to how deeply the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates.
In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= has been holding off July highs on the strong side of 390 since July.
It eased 0.2% to 393.20 to the euro on Tuesday after updated gross domestic product (GDP) data confirmed the first quarterly contraction since the start of 2023, as industry continues to weigh on any recovery.
The Czech crown EURCZK=, which has failed in recent weeks to firm past the psychological 25 per euro level, was down 0.1% at 25.057 after data showing a slower pace of real wage growth than expected, keeping interest rate cuts on the table, according to analysts.
"The development of wages in the second quarter should be an argument for the continued reduction of interest rates," Komercni Banka analysts said.
The Czech National Bank slowed its policy easing pace last month, cutting the main repo rate by 25 basis points, to bring it to 4.50%, after several 50-bp cuts.
In Poland, interest rate cuts were put on hold last year. Markets, however, will watch a central bank meeting on Wednesday to see whether policymakers may soon turn more dovish.
The zloty EURPLN= fell 0.1% to 4.2755 to the euro on Tuesday, remaining below the 4.30 level where it has been since mid-August.
"(The zloty) is pretty much rangebound; CEE3 is doing OK despite the fact that the dollar is stronger," said a Warsaw-based trader.
"There have been some comments that (Polish) rate cuts could come sooner than the market thinks and the market will be looking for anything from (Polish central bank Governor Adam)Glapinski on that."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1140 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0570 | 25.0370 | -0.08% | -1.42% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 393.2000 | 392.3000 | -0.23% | -2.55% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2755 | 4.2700 | -0.13% | +1.61% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9745 | 4.9740 | -0.01% | -0.00% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0200 | +0.06% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1601.90 | 1606.9600 | -0.31% | +13.29% |
Budapest | .BUX | 72714.63 | 72789.23 | -0.10% | +19.95% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2442.38 | 2456.07 | -0.56% | +4.24% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18139.91 | 18111.37 | +0.16% | +18.01% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3970 | 0.0090 | +098bps | +1bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6350 | -0.0030 | +143bps | +1bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8810 | -0.0100 | +156bps | +1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8000 | -0.0570 | +238bps | -6bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1970 | -0.0470 | +299bps | -3bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4430 | -0.0630 | +312bps | -5bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.93 | 3.63 | 3.39 | 4.36 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.62 | 6.25 | 5.86 | 6.50 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.76 | 5.46 | 5.07 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Sharon Singleton
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