Nasdaq Composite: Lined up at the velvet rope
U.S. equity index futures edge red
Mortgage market index 296.1 vs 266.8 last week
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.1%
Dollar, gold up slightly; bitcoin off ~1%; crude down >1.9%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.76%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: LINED UP AT THE VELVET ROPE
The Dow .DJI and S&P 500 index .SPX have been partying lately. Indeed, both scored fresh record highs on Tuesday. In fact, the Dow ended at its fourth-straight record closing high. However, the Nasdaq composite .IXIC has been on the outside.
That said, the composite's July record peaks are now within reach. The tech-laden index ended Tuesday down only a little over 3% from its record highs.
However, whether the composite will be able to soon join in on the Dow and S&P 500's record high's party is an open question given that one measure of the Nasdaq's internal strength is now reaching some pretty big chart hurdles:
The composite ended at 18,074 on Tuesday, which is down 3.07% from its 18,647.448 July 10 record closing high, and 3.2% from its 18,671.069 July 11 record intraday high.
Meanwhile, traders are also eyeing the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index, which ended at 70.7% on Tuesday.
What may be critical to the potential for greater Nasdaq gains is whether this measure can finally punch through the resistance line from its early 2023 peak as well its highs of the past two years or so.
That resistance line is now at about 74%, and there are seven distinct highs which range from 68.2% to 79.2%. At a minimum, bulls will want to see the resistance line taken out to add confidence in broader Nasdaq strength.
If the NH/NL index instead turns down, and breaks its rising 10-day moving average, which should be around 60% on Wednesday, and the composite violates its 50-DMA, which should be around 17,425 on Wednesday, downside pressure may intensify.
The NH/NL index's September trough was at 46.3%, while the Nasdaq's September low was at 16,668.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR WEDNESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
A FRUITFUL WINTER FOR AIRLINES? - CLICK HERE
WATCH OUT FOR A EURO ZONE ECONOMIC BOUNCEBACK - CLICK HERE
IS THE TIDE TURNING ON EUROPEAN CYCLICALS? - CLICK HERE
STOXX OFF TO MUTED START, SAP HIT - CLICK HERE
CHINA BOOST SET TO FADE IN EUROPE - CLICK HERE
AFTER CHINA'S STIMULUS SUGAR RUSH - CLICK HERE
NasdaqNHNLindex09252024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4e7xial
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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