Taiwan raises GDP forecast on tech boost, sees 'easing' policy environment
Taiwan central bank raises 2024 economic growth forecast
Raises 2024 CPI forecast slightly
Holds key rate at 2.0%, as expected
Governor sees 'easing' direction of global monetary policy
Recasts, adds details and quotes, paragraphs 3-4 and 11
By Liang-sa Loh and Faith Hung
TAIPEI, Sept 19 (Reuters) -Taiwan's central bank raised its economic growth estimate for the year, expecting a boost from technologies like artificial intelligence, and said the tone of global monetary policy was moving towards easing even as it kept interest rates unchanged.
The central bank has chosen to chart its own path and not follow the lead of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivered a larger-than-usual half-percentage-point reduction on Wednesday.
Taiwan remains concerned about inflation, with the bank on Thursday raising its forecast for its benchmark price index for this year, although expecting it to fall back in 2025.
Central bank governor Yang Chin-long, speaking after a unanimous decision left the bank's benchmark discount rate TWINTR=ECI at 2%, where it has been since March, said the current tone of monetary policy "could hardly be described as tightening".
"The international environment is moving in a direction of easing," he said, adding that Taiwan's current interest rates were still not really that high.
All 32 economists in a Reuters poll had predicted the central bank would keep the rate unchanged.
The island's tech-focused economy, home to the world's largest chipmaker TSMC 2330.TW, has powered ahead thanks to demand from companies like Nvidia NVDA.O for artificial intelligence applications.
The bank, in a statement after the quarterly rate-setting meeting, said that going into next year new technology applications would continue to boost Taiwan's exports.
It raised its 2024 estimate for economic growth to 3.82% from a forecast of 3.77% in June, and predicted growth of 3.08% in 2025. Taiwan's economy grew at its slowest pace in 14 years in 2023.
The central bank also slightly lifted its consumer price index (CPI) forecast for this year to 2.16% from a previous prediction of 2.12%, forecasting it would fall to 1.89% next year. It considers 2% its "warning" line.
In a measure aimed at curbing property price increases, the central bank also raised the ratios it sets for banks' reserve requirements by 25 basis points.
That move would reduce inflows into the property market and lock in more than T$125 billion ($3.92 billion) into the banks' reserves, Yang said.
He also said he hoped that Taiwan banks would be more cautious with their real estate lending.
($1 = 31.8930 Taiwan dollars)
Reporting by Liang-sa Loh and Faith Hung; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Tom Hogue
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