US exporters race to ship soybeans as looming election stokes tariff worries
Soybean export premiums at 14-month high due to record U.S. harvest
Chinese importers shun U.S. soybeans over tariff threats, shift to Brazilian soy
Immediate shipment premiums likely to erode as near-term demand is met
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Oct 22 (Reuters) -U.S. soybean export premiums are at their highest in 14 months, as grain merchants race to ship out a record-large U.S. harvest ahead of the U.S. presidential election and fears of renewed trade tensions with top importer China, traders and analysts said.
Nearly 2.5 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans were inspected for export last week, including almost 1.7 million tons bound for China, the most in a year, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data released on Monday.
But while this export flurry is a bright spot for U.S. farmers coping with low prices and hefty supplies, sellers say such heightened export demand could be short lived - leaving the U.S. with a glut of oilseeds at a time when prices are hovering near four-year lows.
Tariff threats from presidential hopeful Donald Trump's campaign speeches are prompting some Chinese importers to shun U.S. shipments from January onward, traders and analysts said.
Instead, these buyers are booking Brazilian soy - and paying up to 40 cents a bushel more than they would in the United States in an earlier-than-normal seasonal shift that's shrinking the U.S. export window.
"The Chinese don't know what final costs will be relative to tariffs. They are avoiding the United States from January forward," said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co.
Basse said he expects 2024/25 U.S. exports to fall 75 million bushels short of the latest USDA forecast.
How China will respond to tariffs under a new U.S. administration is unclear. Trump has vowed to boost tariffs on Chinese products to around 60%, while challenger Kamala Harris' plan is to keep tariffs roughly as they are now.
"There's a threat of tariffs from either party, but more so under a Trump administration," said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex. "With Harris, there's a real possibility that things will revert to the status quo."
Traders said premiums for immediate shipments of U.S. soy are likely to erode in the coming weeks as near-term demand is met and if trade war concerns limit new buying by China.
Cash premiums for soybean barges delivered to Gulf export terminals by midweek spiked to a 130-cent premium over Chicago Board of Trade November SX24 futures on Monday, reflecting strong demand for immediate supplies, traders said.
The same soybeans, if loaded next month, were available for 27 cents a bushel less, or a savings of roughly $14,000 per fully loaded 1,500-ton barge.
Reporting by Karl Plume; Editing by Sandra Maler
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Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
