US natgas edges up on cold weather, higher demand view
Oct 23 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Wednesday, driven by forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next few days than previously expected.
Also supporting the price gain was a reduction in the amount of gas producers have pulled out of the ground so far this month.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.6 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.33 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:21 a.m. EDT (1421 GMT).
However, the front-month was in technically oversold territory for a sixth day in a row for the first time since February.
Colder temperatures after the current warm stretch, which would encourage power burns and smaller storage injections near the end of the traditional injection season, would be supportive for prices, said Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 177 total degree days (TDDs) over the next two weeks, higher than Tuesday's 163 TDDs.
Declining LNG feed gas demand and increasing production may constrain upward price movements for natural gas, DiDona added.
Financial group LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slipped to 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 101.8 bcfd in September. That compares with a record 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.
Analysts have projected energy firms would cut output in calendar 2024 for the first time since 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand for the fuel.
That's because many producers have curtailed drilling activities so far this year after gas prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low in March. Prices have remained relatively low since then. NGAS/POLL HH/GAS
With cooler weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 95.7 bcfd this week to 99.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.0 bcfd so far in October, up from 12.7 bcfd in September. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended Oct 18 Forecast | Week ended Oct 11 Actual | Year ago Oct 18 | Five-year average Oct 18 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +60 | +76 | +81 | +76 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,765 | 3,705 | 3,679 | 3,618 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 4.1% | 4.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.28 | 2.34 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.31 | 12.82 | 14.55 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.53 | 13.34 | 16.30 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 132 | 114 | 163 | 175 | 179 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 45 | 49 | 32 | 27 | 24 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 177 | 163 | 195 | 202 | 203 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.7 | 101.6 | 101.5 | 104.0 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.1 | 108.9 | N/A | 103.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.4 | N/A | 5.9 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.6 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 13.8 | 10.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 6.7 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.9 |
U.S. Residential | 7.6 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.4 | 31.4 | 31.5 | 31.8 | 30.9 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.7 | 22.3 | 22.5 | 22.1 | 22.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 75.6 | 74.3 | 77.7 | 75.0 | 74.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 97.6 | 95.7 | 99.3 | N/A | 92.7 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 96 | 96 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 90 | 90 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 90 | 90 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Oct 25 | Week ended Oct 18 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 15 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 41 | 40 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 13 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 1.71 | 1.76 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.70 | 1.48 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.44 | 2.34 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.57 | 1.32 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.71 | 1.37 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.72 | 1.57 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.90 | 1.61 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.24 | 1.02 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.29 | 0.93 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.25 | 41.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 48.05 | 41.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 44.50 | 38.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 53.00 | 67.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 25.00 | 26.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 27.75 |
Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Andrea Ricci
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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