US natgas prices climb 3% to 12-week high on rising demand, less output ahead of hurricane
Adds latest prices in paragraphs 1, 6, 8
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 25 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about3% to a 12-week high onWednesday on forecasts for higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a continued reduction in output ahead of HurricaneHelene.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast Helene would strengthen into a major hurricane as it marches across the Gulf of Mexico before slamming into theFlorida Panhandle late on Thursday.
Although storms are more likely to reduce gas demand and prices through power outages and shutting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, analysts said this storm was on track to miss the LNG plants.
That means demand for gas from those LNG export plants should remain high at the same time that some Gulf Coast producers have cut output ahead of the storm.
More than 75% of U.S. gas production still comes from big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, so most of the country's gas output should remain safe from the storm.
On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.6 cents, or 3.4%, to settle at $2.637 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 27.
Thatsmall price move higher pushed the front-month back into technically overbought territory for the second time this week. Prices were also in technicallyoverbought territory onMonday.
Futures for November NGX24, which will soon be the front-month, were trading up about 2 cents to $2.81 per mmBtu.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slid to an average of 102.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 2.6 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary three-month low of 100.2 bcfd. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day.
Analysts said recent output reductions were partly due to producers curtailing Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production ahead of Helene and lower flows on a Natural Gas Pipeline Co (NGPL) pipe in Texas after a force majeure event at a compressor.
With milder autumn weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 98.8 bcfd this week to 97.6 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have eased to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdown of Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
Week ended Sep 20 Forecast | Week ended Sep 13 Actual | Year ago Sep 20 | Five-year average Sep 20 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +53 | +58 | +82 | +88 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,498 | 3,445 | 3,333 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.3% | 8.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.61 | 2.55 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.97 | 11.60 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.06 | 13.21 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 32 | 27 | 30 | 54 | 77 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 100 | 100 | 105 | 93 | 73 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 132 | 127 | 135 | 147 | 150 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.9 | 101.8 | 102.0 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.8 | 7.5 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 109.6 | 109.5 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 12.8 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.9 | 40.2 | 37.4 | 37.0 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 78.1 | 76.0 | 74.7 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 98.8 | 97.6 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 77 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 27 | Week ended Sep 20 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.61 | 2.40 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.43 | 1.56 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.97 | 2.92 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.44 | 1.56 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.41 | 2.27 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.90 | 1.95 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.40 | 2.33 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.63 | 1.57 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.16 | 0.15 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.00 | 34.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 50.50 | 44.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.50 | 32.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 36.00 | 75.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 29.00 | 35.00 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 29.50 | 34.25 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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