US natural gas prices jump 7% to 12-week high on storm worries
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Sept 23 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7%to a 12-week high on Monday on worries some Gulf Coastoil and gas producers would reduce output ahead of a possible hurricane that could hit the region later this week.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.9 cents, or 7.4%, to settle at $2.613 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 27.
That was the contract's biggest daily percentage gain since late August andpushed the front-monthinto technically overbought territory for the first time since the middle of June.
In the Atlantic basin, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast a tropical disturbancein the Caribbean Sea would strengthen intoa hurricane on Wednesday that would hit the Florida Panhandle on Thursday.
Although storms aremore likely to reduce gas demand and prices through poweroutages and shuttingliquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, analysts said this storm was currently on track to miss the LNG plants.
That means demand for gas from those LNG export plants was likely to remain high at the same time some Gulf Coast producers cut output.
More than75% of U.S. gas production still comesfrom big inland shale basins like Appalachia in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio and the Permian in West Texas and eastern New Mexico, so most of the country's gas output should remain safe from the storm.
That is very different from 20 years ago when roughly 20% of the nation's gas came from the federal offshore parts of the Gulfof Mexico. Back then, Gulf Coast hurricanes usually caused gas prices to spike higher.
Now, however,the federal offshoreregion produces just about2% of the country's gas.
In Canada, meanwhile, next-day gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta fell to 5 cents per mmBtu, their lowest level since hitting a record low of around 2 cents in August 2022, according to data from financial firm LSEG going back to 1993.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has slidto an average of 102.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
With milder autumn weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will slide from 99.1 bcfd this week to 97.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants have easedto an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in September, down from 12.9 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
That reduction was due mostly to the planned Sept. 20 shutdownof Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland for around three weeks of annual maintenance.
Week ended Sep 20 Forecast | Week ended Sep 13 Actual | Year ago Sep 20 | Five-year average Sep 20 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +54 | +58 | +82 | +88 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,499 | 3,445 | 3,333 | 3,259 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.4% | 8.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.48 | 2.43 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.53 | 11.27 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.97 | 12.83 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 32 | 24 | 30 | 54 | 70 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 103 | 122 | 105 | 93 | 78 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 135 | 146 | 135 | 147 | 148 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.9 | 102.3 | 102.4 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 109.9 | 110.0 | 110.0 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.6 | 12.3 | 12.8 | 12.8 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.9 | 39.8 | 37.0 | 37.0 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.8 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.6 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.6 | 77.7 | 75.6 | 74.7 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.1 | 97.7 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 27 | Week ended Sep 20 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 10 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.20 | 2.24 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.15 | 1.45 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.43 | 2.26 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.17 | 1.47 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.05 | 1.93 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.48 | 1.75 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.89 | 1.75 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.55 | 1.37 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.05 | 0.21 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 33.00 | 33.00 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 37.63 | 45.00 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 29.50 | 25.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 56.50 | 44.00 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 17.00 | 19.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 15.25 | 17.50 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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