Sluggish demand, supply glut worries to weigh on oil in 2025
2024 Brent forecast cut for sixth month in a row
Global oil demand seen up 1 mln-1.5 mln bpd in 2025
For table of crude price forecasts, click OILPOLL
By Anjana Anil and Brijesh Patel
Oct 31 (Reuters) -Concerns around demand from top consumer China, prospects of higher supply from key producers and easing geopolitical risks are likely to weigh on oil prices this year and next, a Reuters poll indicated on Thursday.
The poll of 40 analysts and economists conducted in the past two weeks projected Brent crude LCOc1 would average $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025, down from estimates of $81.52 and $76.94 projected in September.
U.S. crude CLc1 is expected to average $76.73 a barrel in 2024 and $72.73 next year, compared with projections of $77.64 and $73.03 last month.
"Geopolitical risks will continue to support gyrating markets, but overall the risk of an actual disruption remains very limited, hence the geopolitical related rallies have increasingly become a selling opportunity," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Brent crude has dropped more than 9% in the last three weeks on easing fears that Israel might attack Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. The global benchmark has averaged around $81 a barrel so far this year.
Most of the analysts noted that despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, ample spare production capacity among key OPEC producers has mitigated any upward price movements.
OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, is scheduled to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day in December. The group will meet on Dec. 1.
Reuters has reported that OPEC+ could delay the planned oil production increase in December by a month or more.
"We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors," said John Paisie, president of Stratas Advisors.
Global oil demand was expected to increase by about 0.8 million-1.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1 million-1.5 million bpd in 2025, the poll showed.
Earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration slashed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, citing weakening economic activity in China. OPEC also lowered its demand growth forecast for 2024 and next year.
"Major factors that will impact the (demand) outlook are a continued industrial and manufacturing slowdown in China, a worsening of the recent geopolitical flareup and a global shift towards renewables in the energy mix," Sehul Bhatt, director of research at CRISIL, said.
OPEC world oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025 https://tmsnrt.rs/3CeWeyq
Average Brent price forecast https://tmsnrt.rs/3AtgoUU
Reporting by Anjana Anil and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese; Editing by Jan Harvey
Aset Berkaitan
Berita Terkini
Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
