China forgoes US corn despite slowdown in Brazilian shipments -Braun
Repeats column first published on Wednesday
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 18 (Reuters) -China’s corn imports have eased in recent months, coinciding with lighter shipments from its new favorite supplier Brazil.
Chinese buyers, however, have not sought U.S. corn to fill the gap.
In the first eight months of 2024, China imported 12.56 million metric tons of corn, down nearly 16% from the same period a year ago. Early 2024 arrivals were stronger than in 2023, but that advantage disappeared in May and the year-to-date deficit has grown ever since.
China began importing hefty volumes of corn in late 2020 with the United States as its dominant supplier, but U.S. shipments have thinned since China cleared Brazilian corn for import two years later.
A record 31% of U.S. corn exports in the 2020-21 marketing year went to China, but that fell to 18% by 2022-23, before dropping below 6% in the recently concluded 2023-24 season.
By contrast, less than 3% of Brazil’s corn shipments went to China in calendar year 2022, though the share surged to 29% last year.
China is harvesting what should be its fourth-consecutive record-large corn crop, but that will not necessarily deter strong imports since foreign supplies can be cheaper than domestic ones when global prices are low.
Additionally, the recent downtick in China’s corn imports does not reflect trends in other grains, as arrivals of wheat, barley and sorghum this year are up notably from last year.
SMALLER BRAZIL CROP
Brazil’s 2023-24 corn crop, most of which was recently harvested, was nearly 12% smaller than in the previous record-large season. In July and August, the first two months of Brazil’s typical shipping window, corn exports were down 29% on the year.
Brazil’s exports were down by a similar degree in the first half of 2024 after setting staggering monthly records late last year, partly explaining China’s recent slowdown in corn arrivals.
This pattern will continue in the near term as shipping lineups suggest Brazil’s September corn exports could be nearly a quarter smaller than last year.
Corn shipments out of the No. 2 exporter could remain modest through next year as Conab on Tuesday pegged the 2024-25 corn crop up 3.6% on the year but still nearly 9% off the 2022-23 record.
Despite a bigger harvest, exports in 2024-25 are seen easing on the year, partly due to heavier domestic consumption.
U.S. STAYS ON SIDELINES?
In theory, the contraction of Brazilian corn supplies and a near-record U.S. harvest should boost opportunity for U.S. exporters given that the two countries account for slightly more than half of global corn shipments.
But the United States may have to pin hopes on traditional corn customers such as Mexico and Japan since China has shown virtually zero interest in its 2024-25 offerings. China has not purchased meaningful volumes of U.S. corn since early 2023.
U.S. agricultural trade with China does not historically thrive amid flaring diplomatic tensions, and those may be coming to the forefront once again with the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The Biden administration on Friday confirmed further tariff hikes on Chinese imports, potentially souring the scene for Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris. Her opponent, former President Donald Trump, has vowed to impose large tariffs on all Chinese goods.
The 2018 trade war only served to strengthen Brazil’s ties with China in the way of soybeans, so U.S. corn exporters should not hold their breath for China’s return if another full-blown trade spat is in the making.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Graphic- Monthly corn exports to China: USA versus Brazil https://tmsnrt.rs/3MS1v1g
Graphic- Monthly Brazil corn exports https://tmsnrt.rs/4dayybs
Editing by Rod Nickel
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