Australia, NZ dlrs set for biggest monthly fall in two years
By Stella Qiu
SYDNEY, Oct 31 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars are set for their biggest monthly fall in two years as the relentless rise in U.S. yields buoyed the greenback ahead of the U.S. presidential election, while local bonds are also showing heavy monthly losses.
On Thursday, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady as expected, which had little market impact. The central bank reiterated that it still plans to raise interest rates if the economy develops as expected.
The Aussie AUD=D3 was little changed at $0.6572, having bounced 0.2% overnight from its three-month low of $0.6537. October has been tough for the currency, which has shed 4.9% in its biggest monthly fall since September 2022.
The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 held at $0.5975, having been little changed overnight.It is set for a 5.9% drop in October, also its biggest monthly fall since September 2022.
Down Under, investors further scaled back their expectations of easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia, given that the third-quarter inflation report showed the core figure remained sticky. The first easing is not fully priced in until May, although the majority of economists still expect a move in February. 0#RBAWATCH
This is partly why three-year bond yields AU3YT=RR rose 6 basis points (bp) to 4.033%, the highest since July. Ten-year yields AU10YT=RR gained 4 bp to 4.518%, the highest since May, and broke a key level at 4.512%.
For the month, three-year yields were up 46 bp and 10-year yields were up 52 bp.
Data released on Thursday showed Australia's retail sales held steady in September after a jump the month before, with recent tax cuts being saved rather than spent. Sales volumes for the whole third quarter rose modestly after a run of declines, likely supporting economic growth.
"Today's retail sales data suggests household spending has passed the low point for this cycle," said Madeline Dunk, an economist at ANZ.
"It appears the combined impact of cost-of-living relief, moderating inflation and tax cuts is flowing through to a modest pickup in aggregate spending."
Investors are much more dovish on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, expecting it to again cut rates by 50 basis points at a meeting on Nov. 27. 0#RBNZWATCH
New Zealand's cash rate, currently at 4.75%, is expected to reach about 3.14% by the end of next year, while Australian rates are projected to decline only modestly to 3.75%.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Nicholas Yong
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