US stock futures, dollar surge as markets sense Trump win
Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Dollar climbs, Treasury yields hit four-month highs
Election results still close, but favour Trump
U.S. stock futures jump, European futures fall
Updates at 0545 GMT
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Nov 6 (Reuters) -U.S. stock futures and the dollar surged in Asia on Wednesday as investors wagered Republican Donald Trump could win the U.S. presidential election, though officially the race remained too early to call.
Trump defeated Democrat Kamala Harris in the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia, taking him closer to completing a stunning political comeback four years after he left the White House.
S&P 500 futures ESc1 and Nasdaq futures NQc1 both climbed more than 1% as Wall Street looked forward to promised tax cuts and less corporate regulation.
European stocks were less enthused as Trump's tariff policies, if enacted, could ignite a global trade war and threaten EU exports.
EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 lost 0.61%, while DAX futures FDXc1 dropped 0.55% and FTSE futures FFIc1 turned flat.
Treasury yields shot to four-month highs as some betting sites heavily favoured Trump, while The New York Time's closely-watched swingometer projected a 93% chance of him winning.
Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs if enacted would put more upward pressure on inflation and bond yields, than Harris' centre-left policies.
Trump's proposals would also tend to push up the dollar and potentially limit how far U.S. interest rates might ultimately be lowered.
Thus while markets 0#FF: were still confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. FEDWATCH, futures for next year eased into the red with December down 9 ticks.
"As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR jumped to a four-month high of 4.471%, breaking last week's top of 4.388%. Two-year yields US2YT=RR climbed to 4.312%, from 4.189% late in New York. US/
"If we look at the long end of the curve, that reflects the fact that both candidates are not exactly fiscal conservatives, they're both willing to use the fiscal printing press," said Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions.
"The biggest issue is if Trump or Harris are going to get full mandates," he added. "If they don't get blue or red sweeps, it limits the fiscal damage, and that's the best outcome for bondholders."
YUAN BUCKLES
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS eased 0.68%, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 2.4% as the yen slid. .N
In currency markets, the dollar index surged 1.6% to 105.19 =USD, the biggest daily rise since early 2023. The euro slid 1.57% to $1.0757 EUR=EBS, falling back from a one-month top of $1.0937 struck overnight.
The dollar jumped 1.37% on the Japanese yen to 153.68 yen JPY=EBS, and further away from a low of 151.34. USD/
Bitcoin BTC= climbed as much as 8.54% to reach a record $75,060. Trump is seen as more actively supportive of cryptocurrencies than Harris.
The dollar gained 1.15% on the offshore yuan CNH=D3 to 7.1801 yuan, sparking reports Chinese banks were selling dollars to slow the yuan's decline.
China is seen on the front line of tariff risk, and its currency in particular is trading on tenterhooks with implied volatility against the dollar CNHSWO= around record highs.
Chinese stock markets have surged to almost one-month highs as investors expect a meeting of top policymakers in Beijing this week to approve local government debt refinancing and spending. Chinese blue chips .CSI300 last traded 0.2% higher.
Gold prices were choppy with a dip of 0.16% to $2,739.16 an ounce XAU=, off a recent record peak of 2,790.15. GOL/
The sharp rise in the dollar pressured oil prices, and other commodities, as it makes them more expensive when buying in other currencies. O/R
U.S. crude CLc1 shed $1.05 to $70.93 per barrel, while Brent LCOc1 fell $1.14 cents to $74.41.
Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Shri Navaratnam
To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA
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