Australia, NZ dlrs set for biggest two-week drop in almost two years
By Stella Qiu
SYDNEY, July 26 (Reuters) -The Australian and New Zealand dollars were set for the biggest two-week drop in nearly two years as a bout of global risk aversion, sustained selling against the yen and China's lacklustre easing measures drove them sharply lower.
After falling for nine sessions to a three-month low, the Aussie steadied on Friday and was last up 0.1% at $0.6546. It is, however, set for a weekly loss of 2%. Coupled with last week's drop of 1.5%, the two-week decline is the largest since September 2022.
It needs to rebound above the 200-day moving average of $0.6589 to break the downward trend.
The kiwi dollar NZD=D3 was flat at $0.5889, after sliding for a sixth day overnight to a three-month trough of $0.5873. It fell 2% this week, adding to last week's decline of 1.8%.
"Both the AUD and NZD look oversold from a technical perspective and if we want to be positive after trading to an overnight low of $0.6515, the AUD is showing signs of a rebound," said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at the National Australia Bank.
The two currencies have been buffeted by a sell-off in global share markets, an unwinding of the popular carry trade using the yen as funding currency and persistently sour sentiments towards China, driving commodity prices sharply lower.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars are often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan, reflecting China's status as the biggest trading partner of two countries.
The Aussie also steadied at 100.78 yen AUDJPY=, having sunk another 0.6% overnight which brings losses in the past two weeks to 6%. The kiwi also held at 90.65 yen NZDJPY=R and was down 6.2% in the last two weeks.
Overnight on Wall Street, U.S. economic strength again surprised on the upside, although that did not dent the view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. Next up on Friday is the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, where forecasts were centred on a benign increase of 0.1%.
Down Under, investors are wagering on a 20% probability of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its August policy meeting. Much will depend on inflation figures for the second quarter due on July 31, where an annual rise of 4.0% or more in core inflation would ramp up pressure for a tightening.
As for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), a run of soft data has markets baying for early and aggressive rate cuts with an August easing now priced at a 44% probability.
Some 68 basis points of cuts are implied for this year, and another 108 basis points for 2025. 0#RBNZWATCH
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Christian Schmollinger
Aset Berkaitan
Berita Terkini
Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
