Benchmark Treasury yield: Can the climb clear the Cloud?
U.S. equity index futures decline: Nasdaq 100 off ~0.7%
Euro STOXX 600 index down ~0.6%
Dollar edges green; gold rises; crude up ~1%; bitcoin off ~1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.19%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD: CAN THE CLIMB CLEAR THE CLOUD?
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=R rose to a 12-week high on Monday as investors priced for a more robust American economy and less dovish Federal Reserve.
Yields have jumped since a much stronger-than-expected employment report for September led investors to price out the probability that the U.S. central bank will make further large interest rate cuts, following a 50 basis-point reduction last month.
The yield ended Monday at 4.182%. Now on Tuesday, it has hit a high of 4.222%, which coincides with its 55-week moving average. The yield has since backed away to around 4.19%, but is on track to rise for sixth straight week.
With this week's strength, the yield is now challenging a significant resistance zone in the form of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud:
Ichimoku Cloud is a technical indicator which displays support and resistance, identifies trends, and measures momentum. Utilizing midpoints of ranges, a number of lines are generated. Two of these lines are used to create Cloud boundaries. The entire cloud is shifted forward in time in order to provide a glimpse of future support and resistance.
Since closing above the cloud on a weekly basis in early February 2021, the yield had not ended a week below it until its early August break.
Thus, the recovery off of the 3.599% mid-September trough may still be seen as a counter-reaction as long as the yield tops out as it battles the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, which now resides in the 4.20%-4.33% area.
And the yield is pressing this zone as it appears stretched to the upside given its weekly win streak. The yield last rose six weeks in a row in March 2023.
The 200-day moving average is now initial support at 4.175% ahead of this week's low at 4.077% and the October 16 trough at 3.995%.
A weekly close above the cloud can instead suggest a major inflection back to the upside is underway.
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
CAUTION! S&P POSITIONING HAS BECOME 'STRETCHED' - CLICK HERE
BETTING ON M&A? HERE'S WHAT TO OWN - CLICK HERE
WEAK START FOR STOXX, TECH CAPS FURTHER LOSSES - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN BEFORE THE BELL: UNCERTAINTY OFFSETS POSITIVE EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
BONDS AND GOLD BEGIN COUNTDOWN TO US ELECTION DAY - CLICK HERE
US10YT10222024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4f5aFUg
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
</body></html>Aset Berkaitan
Berita Terkini
Penafian: Entiti XM Group menyediakan perkhidmatan pelaksanaan sahaja dan akses ke Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian, yang membolehkan sesorang melihat dan/atau menggunakan kandungan yang ada di dalam atau melalui laman web, tidak bertujuan untuk mengubah atau memperluas, juga tidak mengubah atau mengembangkannya. Akses dan penggunaan tersebut tertakluk kepada: (i) Terma dan Syarat; (ii) Amaran Risiko; dan Penafian Penuh. Oleh itu, kandungan sedemikian disediakan tidak lebih dari sekadar maklumat umum. Terutamanya, perlu diketahui bahawa kandungan Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian bukan permintaan, atau tawaran untuk melakukan transaksi dalam pasaran kewangan. Berdagang dalam mana-mana pasaran kewangan melibatkan tahap risiko yang besar terhadap modal anda.
Semua bahan yang diterbitkan di Kemudahan Dagangan Atas Talian kami bertujuan hanya untuk tujuan pendidikan/maklumat dan tidak mengandungi – dan tidak boleh dianggap mengandungi nasihat kewangan, cukai pelaburan atau dagangan dan cadangan, atau rekod harga dagangan kami, atau tawaran, atau permintaan untuk suatu transaksi dalam sebarang instrumen kewangan atau promosi kewangan yang tidak diminta kepada anda.
Sebarang kandungan pihak ketiga serta kandungan yang disediakan oleh XM, seperti pendapat, berita, penyelidikan, analisis, harga, maklumat lain atau pautan ke laman web pihak ketiga yang terdapat dalam laman web ini disediakan berdasarkan "seadanya" sebagai ulasan pasaran umum dan bukanlah nasihat pelaburan. Sesuai dengan apa-apa kandungan yang ditafsir sebagai penyelidikan pelaburan, anda mestilah ambil perhatian dan menerima bahawa kandungan tersebut tidak bertujuan dan tidak sediakan berdasarkan keperluan undang-undang yang direka untuk mempromosikan penyelidikan pelaburan bebas dan oleh itu, ia dianggap sebagai komunikasi pemasaran di bawah peraturan dan undang-undang yang berkaitan. SIla pastikan bahawa anda telah membaca dan memahami Notifikasi mengenai Penyelidikan Pelaburan Bukan Bebas dan Amaran Risiko mengenai maklumat di atas yang boleh diakses di sini.
