EM currencies set for weekly losses; focus on Fed, Trump risks
EM stocks, FX flat; both set for weekly fall
Russia rate decision later in the day
Elections in Georgia and Uruguay over the weekend
By Shashwat Chauhan
Oct 25 (Reuters) - Emerging market currencies were set for weekly losses on Friday as the dollar remained firm on expectations of fewer rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while the upcoming U.S. elections also kept risk taking in check.
MSCI's index for emerging market currencies .MIEM00000CUS was flat 1,763.14 points, with heavyweight Chinese yuan CNH= down 0.1% in offshore trading.
The index was set for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, as market participants scaled back bets of large Fed rate cuts and Donald Trump's possible return as the U.S. president kept the dollar buoyed.
The dollar index =USD is set for its fourth straight weekly advance, hovering near its highest level since August.
Traders currently see a 95% chance of the Fed opting for a 25 basis points cut in November, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
"As the U.S. elections approach and Trump trades are being implemented, the USD is likely to remain on the front foot and U.S. rates likely to remain elevated, creating a somewhat painful backdrop for EM assets," Barclays economists said in a note.
Trump's proposed policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as inflationary, likely keeping U.S. interest rates high and undermining the currencies of trading partners.
South Africa's rand ZAR= slipped 0.1% against the dollar after rising about 0.6% in the last session, while most currencies in Central Eastern Europe lost ground against the euro.
Russia's rouble CNYRUB= weakened 0.2% against the Chinese yuan ahead of a local rate decision, with consensus tilted towards the central bank hiking rates to 20%.
Western sanctions imposed on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Centre, on June 12 stopped all trade in dollars and euros at MOEX, making the yuan the most-traded foreign currency in Russia.
This coming weekend, citizens of Georgia and Uruguay will be headed to the polls for national elections.
Meanwhile, MSCI's index for emerging market stocks .MSCIEF held steady at 1,134.1 points as of 0837 GMT, and was on track for its third straight weekly decline.
Shares in heavyweight Mainland China .SSEC, .CSI300 closed higher, while India's benchmark .NSEI fell more than 1%.
EM stocks saw their biggest weekly outflow since April 2020 of $7.2 billion in the week till Wednesday, while debt also saw outflows, according to a Bank of America report.
HIGHLIGHTS:
** Spurred by shared grievances, BRICS gathers pace
** China's market rollercoaster claims another fund
** Egypt economy seen growing as IMF measures run course
For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2024 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX
Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Varun H K
For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/
For TURKISH market report, see .IS
For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB
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