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Technical Analysis – US 100 index weakness lingers

- Achilleas Georgolopoulos

  • US 100 cash index is in the red, a tad below the 100-day SMA

  • Market sentiment remains bearish ahead of key US data

  • Momentum indicators mostly bearish; all eyes on the stochastic

The US 100 cash index is in the red again today, trading a tad below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and around 6% lower from its recent all-time high. Despite the moderately positive earnings round, the market momentum remains negative ahead of some key US data prints that could gravely affect the overall rhetoric at the May 1 Fed meeting.

This negative sentiment is depicted in most momentum indicators. More specifically, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is pointing to a decent bearish trend in place, and the RSI continues to hover comfortably below its midpoint. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is trying to break above both its moving average and oversold territory (OS). Should this move pick up pace, it could be seen as a strong bearish signal and thus open the door to a lower low in the US 100 index.

Should the bears remain confident, they could try to push the US 100 index below the 16,767-17,007 range that is populated by the December 28, 2023 and November 22, 2021 highs. Lower, the busy 15,708-16,050 area could be tested provided of course that the bears manage to overcome the key 200-day SMA at 16,333.

On the flip side, the bulls are trying to retake the market reins and lead the US 100 index above the crucial 17,443-17,797 area that is defined by the January 24, 2024 high and the 100-day SMA. They could then gradually test the resistance set by the 17,937-18,041 area, and if successful, open the door for a move towards the recent all-time high.

To sum up, US 100 index bears are preparing for a new downleg, especially if the incoming US data remains strong, aiming for a lower low and to gradually lay the foundations for a more protracted correction.

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