Quick Brief – Oil bears take the driver’s seat
- Oil tumbles as Saudi Arabia prepares to drop $100 price target
- PBoC measures fail to provide support
- Market ignores US inventories and tensions in the Middle East
Oil prices fell around 2.5% on Thursday due to easing concerns about supply disruptions in Libya after factions signed an official accord on appointing a central bank governor, thereby ending the dispute regarding their central bank and oil revenue.
The tumble accelerated today after the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its target of $100 per barrel as it prepares to increase output and take back market share.
The latest fall suggests that, despite the latest bold support measures announced by the People’s Bank of China, investors are still holding the view that more fiscal help is needed to bolster economic activity in the world’s largest crude importer. It also suggests that investors saw Saudi Arabia’s move as a sign that the kingdom is preparing for a period of lower prices.
Crude oil inventories in the US continue to fall while the conflict in the Middle East is intensifying, but these developments failed to support prices. Perhaps participants are viewing the decline in US inventories as a temporary development, while geopolitics may have already been priced in.
With all that in mind, there is a decent chance for the bears to stay in charge for a while longer, with further declines in WTI perhaps paving the way towards the low of September 10, at around $65.70.
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