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Previews

XM Research - 22 hours ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD

French elections help euro to recoup some losses Friday’s NFP report is the week’s main driver as USDJPY holds near highs Canadian employment report next in focus with USDCAD in range French and UK elections --> EURGBP The euro experienced an increase on Monday following the initial round of France's election, which resulted in the far-right party taking the lead, albeit by a smaller margin than anticipated.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

What can we expect from the ISM business PMIs next week? – Preview

ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven    EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885   What happened previously? Dollar traders will pay close attention to the US ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for June due on Monday and Wednesday respectively at 14:00 GMT.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Eurozone CPI report: further noise or a proper signal to cut rates again? – Preview

ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three weeks since the first ECB rate cut, and the situation feels very different to a traditional monetary policy easing cycle.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Will the core PCE inflation persuade the Fed to cut rates? – Preview

US core PCE inflation index could resume downtrend Fed may ask more evidence before cutting interest rates EURUSD trades near key support zone. Is it time for an upside reversal?    Inflation could hit a new low in May Friday will see the release of the Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation measure at 12:30 GMT as the world’s largest central bank keeps looking for signs of sustained price stability around its 2.0% target almost a year after it paused its hiking cycle.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Could Tokyo CPI make the July BoJ meeting a live one? – Preview

BoJ meeting minutes summary keep the door open to a July rate hike Key data due this week, especially Friday’s Tokyo CPI Retail sales data to show consumer appetite Yen remains under pressure as officials avoid verbal intervention The BoJ is still willing to hike rates On June 14, the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged and failed to surprise the market.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Euro on firmer footing ahead of flash PMIs as French risks subside - Preview

Euro rebounds as French election fears ease June PMIs to come into the spotlight amid more cautious ECB Flash estimates are due on Friday at 08:00 GMT Calmer week for the euro after French turmoil European assets are having a better week following the market panic sparked by the rise of the far right across the continent in the European Parliament elections on June 9. But the biggest shockwave came from French President Emmanuelle Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative ele
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

SNB is expected to cut, but risk of disappointment – Preview

Expectations of a June cut by the SNB have been gaining traction But inflation picture isn't entirely favourable; weak franc doesn’t help A lot of uncertainty awaits the SNB’s decision due Thursday at 07:30 GMT Will the SNB cut rates again? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) got the ball rolling with interest rate cuts back in March, becoming the first major central bank to start its easing cycle.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will the BoE signal that rate cuts are looming? – Preview

Soft UK data increase chances for September rate cut But wage growth remains elevated BoE meets on Thursday at 11:00 GMT But looming election could be a reason for cautiousness Investors more convinced about a September cut At its latest gathering, the Bank of England (BoE) appeared dovish enough to encourage market participants to assign a decent chance for a first quarter-point rate cut in June, but that didn’t last for long as the hotter-than-expected inflation data for Ap
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Soft retail sales could curb Fed hawks’ rhetoric – Preview

Market ponders the Fed’s stance after a hawkish gathering Retail sales to reveal the strength of domestic demand Dollar on the front foot; could suffer if data weaken this week The May retail sales report will be released on Tuesday 12:30 GMT At last week’s Fed meeting, consumer spending featured briefly in Chairman Powell’s press conference.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF

GBPUSD holds a bearish bias ahead of UK inflation, BoE rate decision AUDUSD retains neutral outlook as all eyes turn to the RBA policy decision USDCHF sustains 0.8890 floor; Will the SNB trigger the next bull wave?   BoE rate decision --> GBPUSD UK CPI inflation and the Bank of England’s rate decision could produce a new wave of volatility for GBPUSD on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

RBA policy meeting may be muted; aussie remains choppy – Preview

RBA interest rate expected to remain unchanged Sticky inflation and economy’s uncertainty still a concern Aussie holds in downward channel ahead of Tuesday’s decision at 04:30 GMT Australia’s uncertain economy and sustained inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its June policy decision early on Tuesday, likely maintaining the central bank's agenda.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Will the Bank of Japan hint at a July hike? – Preview

Investors see decent chance for BoJ hike in July But struggling economy complicates the policy outlook Report on bond buying sets the hawkish bar even higher The Bank decides on Friday at 03:00 GMT   Obstacles in the road for the next BoJ hike At its latest gathering on April 26, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep the range for its benchmark rate unchanged between 0% and 0.1% as was widely expected.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Chinese CPI expected to tick up Australian employment data may take aussie higher China CPI is due on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT Australia’s jobs data will follow on Thursday at 01:30 GMT RBA may cut rates during 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still considered to be one of the most hawkish among the main world central banks, despite the fact that the weaker-than-expected GDP figures for the first quarter out of Australia diminished bets about a rate hike. In
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Fed pivot less likely after strong NFP, focus on CPI report and dot plot – Preview

A dovish pivot by the Fed is looking less likely at the June meeting Will Fed officials flag two or just one rate cut after strong jobs data? CPI report will also be crucial on Wednesday (12:30 GMT) Statement due at 18:00 GMT will be followed by press conference at 18:30 GMT One step forward, two steps back After a run of consistently hot data on inflation and the economy all year, it briefly seemed like the tide was turning for early rate cut hopes.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, US dollar index, USDJPY

Euro area elections drives EURUSD sharply lower Fed decision and US inflation would have strong impact at US dollar index Will BoJ decision affect USDJPY? Euro area elections --> EURUSD The European elections resulted in significant setbacks for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron. The euro had a significant decline on Monday due to political uncertainty caused by French President Emmanuel Macron's announcement of a sudden legislative electio
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

BoE stays quiet but data could speak volumes – Preview

BoE stuck between strong US data and the ECB rate cut Labour market data could support August rate cut expectations All eyes on average earnings growth Could the pound maintain its recent gains?  BoE remains on the sidelines While the ECB announced its first rate cut since 2019 and the Fed is preparing for Wednesday’s gathering, the Bank of England has been forced to stay on the sidelines.
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