A closer look at U.S. drug pricing risks
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A CLOSER LOOK AT U.S. DRUG PRICING RISKS
Investor concerns over U.S. regulation risks in the healthcare sector are likely to come to the fore again, with talks over Medicare pricing due to be announced and presidential elections only four months away.
Berenberg has taken a closer look at potential pricing risks for Big Pharma stemming from tweaks to the complex U.S. drug payment system. In short, even though it sees cuts of up to 30% for certain drugs, the impact on earnings per share (EPS) is not overly worrying.
"Over the coming months, U.S. drug pricing will feature heavily with the publication of 'maximum fair price' for the first list of 10 part D drugs, the US election, part D redesign and the second list of 15 part D drugs for price negotiation," say analysts at the German bank in a note.
"Selected drugs could see price cuts of 15-20%. However, we conclude that most companies will see a negligible impact on group sales and EPS," they add.
In more detail, Berenberg sees the redesign of the Part D prescription drug benefit as most impactful to EPS.
AstraZeneca AZN.L and AbbVie ABBV.N are the most affected via cancer drugs Tagrisso, Calquence, Lynparza, Imbruvica and Venclexta, it said.
Also, it sees average price cuts of 20% for the first 10 drugs in Part D, ranging, for example, from 30% for Amgen’s AMGN.O Enbrel to 10% for Novartis’s NOVN.S Entresto.
However, the imminent expiries of patents means these cuts will be short lived in most cases, Berenberg reckons.
(Danilo Masoni)
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