Crown hits 8-week low with FX stuck at weaker levels
PRAGUE, Oct 1 (Reuters) -The Czech crown hit an eight-week low against the euro on Tuesday as rising risk aversion and data showing continued decline in the region's manufacturing sector kept central Europe's currencies on the back foot.
The crown slipped as low as 25.280 to the euro in morning trade before steadying to 25.269 EURCZK= by 0926 GMT, 0.2% weaker on the day.
The region's currencies have been on a downward slope, mainly led by the crown and Hungarian forint after their respective central banks extended long-running interest rate-cutting cycles last week.
Focus will turn to the Polish and Romanian central banks this week, which are expected to stay on hold but markets will look for new clues on the rate outlook.
In the meantime, global markets have guided the region in recent sessions. The U.S. dollar rallied broadly on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against bets on more supersized interest rate cuts.
"The dollar's gains did not help," bank CSOB analysts said. "Global yields and the eurodollar before Friday's U.S. payrolls data will be a further dynamic (for currencies)."
A continued manufacturing downturn that is weighing on central Europe's economy is another drag on the region's currencies.
Purchasing Managers' Indices published on Tuesday showed activity in central Europe stayed in contraction territory last month, with weak demand mainly from key trading partner Germany the biggest reason.
Poland's zloty EURPLN= fell 0.1% to 4.28 to the euro while Romania's leu EURRON= and Hungary's forint EURHUF= were both steady, with the latter trading at 397.25 to the euro.
The forint, the region's worst performer this year with a 3.5% drop, is trading less than 1% away from the psychological 400 per euro level. The forint last weakened past that level in March 2023.
A trader in Budapest said risk aversion was higher after Israel's ground incursion into south Lebanon.
"There was some expectation that the forint could strengthen after the end-of-the-month weakening but this war is making that impossible due to risk aversion," the trader said.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1126 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2690 | 25.2100 | -0.23% | -2.25% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 397.2500 | 397.2500 | +0.00% | -3.54% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2860 | 4.2830 | -0.07% | +1.36% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9760 | 4.9764 | +0.01% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 117.0300 | +0.09% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1609.41 | 1611.2100 | -0.11% | +13.82% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74197.02 | 73896.18 | +0.41% | +22.40% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2307.65 | 2324.13 | -0.71% | -1.51% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17616.02 | 17616.92 | -0.01% | +14.60% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.1920 | -0.0050 | +115bps | +2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.3430 | 0.0330 | +144bps | +8bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6780 | -0.0020 | +161bps | +7bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.7280 | 0.0280 | +268bps | +5bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9000 | 0.0080 | +299bps | +6bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2760 | -0.0060 | +321bps | +6bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.67 | 3.29 | 3.03 | 4.20 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.30 | 5.90 | 5.41 | 6.31 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.77 | 5.37 | 4.71 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, and Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw
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