Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
Oct 2 (Reuters) -U.S. central bankers lopped half of a percentage point from their interest rate target in September. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the bigger-than-expected reduction was a sign of confidence that inflation is headed back to the 2% target and should not be seen as any indication of the pace of cuts going forward.
Here is a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.
The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove | Dovish | Centrist | Hawkish | Hawk |
Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "This is not a committee that feels like it's in a hurry to cut rates quickly." Sept. 30, 2024 | Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "I cannot rule out the risk that progress on inflation could continue to stall." Sept 24, 2024 | |||
John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: "With the economy now in equipoise and inflation on a path to 2%, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the stance of policy." Sept 6, 2024 | Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: "I'm more concerned about inflation than I am about the labor market ... I'm not talking about some big resurgence ... But I do think getting stuck is a very real risk." Oct 2, 2024 | |||
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: "It is too early to tell whether the recent slowdown in the disinflationary process will be long-lasting. The better reading for April is encouraging." May 20, 2024 | Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "I would agree with several of my colleagues that you probably want to act maybe before (inflation) gets to two (percent) but that sustainability to two I think is really important." Aug 22, 2024 | |||
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: "We will need to allow our restrictive policy some further time to continue its work." May 20, 2024 | Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "We're going to need to see several more months of that data to really have confidence in our outlook that we're heading to 2%." June 18, 2024 | |||
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: "I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any expected. And I would feel the same way on the downside to protect our credibility of maintaining a 2% inflation target." Sept 20, 2024 | Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: "The balance of risks has shifted away from higher inflation and toward the risk of a further weakening of the labor market." Sept 23, 2024 | |||
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "I whole heartedly supported the decision." Sept 26, 2024 | ||||
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: The Fed "now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy." Sept 25, 2024 | ||||
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: "We have to be very mindful that if policy is overly tight, you might get additional slowing in the labor market, and to my mind, that would be unwelcome." Sept 4, 2024 | ||||
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: "If the story is that inflation is continuing its drop and the labor market is staying strong, I think we have the luxury of being a bit more patient." Sept 30, 2024 | ||||
Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, 2025 voter: "For me, it's about easing off the brake at this stage. It's about making policy gradually less restrictive." Sept 27, 2024 | ||||
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: "This is a process over a year or more that we're trying to get the rates down to normal ... It's going to be a lot of cuts." Sept 30, 2024 | ||||
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "I think a gradual, methodical pace once we are in a different policy stance is likely to be appropriate." Aug 22, 2024 | ||||
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: "I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go." Aug 22, 2024 |
Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the central bank's policy rate in September to the 4.75%-5.00% range, and projections released at the time showed most policymakers expected to reduce the rate by another quarter or half of a percentage point before the end of the year. The Cleveland Fed's new president, Beth Hammack, started her job on Aug. 21 and has not made any public comments on monetary policy. She is not included in this dove-hawk matrix.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date | Dove | Dovish | Centrist | Hawkish | Hawk |
Sept '24 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
Apr/May; June; July '24 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
March '24 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
Jan '24 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
Dec '23 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
Oct/Nov '23 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Sept '23 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
June '23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
March '23 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
Dec '22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
Reporting by Ann Saphir, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
