Jefferies hikes Orion to 'buy' on better Nubeqa sales forecast
** Jefferies raises the Finnish drugmaker Orion ORNBV.HE to "buy" from "hold" driven by the increased estimates for peak sales of its prostate cancer drug Nubeqa
** Broker hikes itspeak sales estimate for Nubequa, which was developed jointly by Orion and Bayer BAYGn.DE, to EUR 1.3 billion ($1.46 billion) from EUR 750 million, assuming 27% royalty rate paid by Bayer on in-market peak sales of over EUR 4.7 billionby 2030
** This follows Bayer's Head of Pharma's comments that Nubeqa has the potential to be its best-selling product, and positive doctor feedback, broker says
** Jefferies expects Nubeqa to drive consensus EPS upgrades and increase headroom for Orion to pay bigger dividends while lowering the pay-out ratio, with flexibility to materially raise the dividend from 2026
** The broker adds the phase 3 for anotherprostate cancer drug, opevesostat (ODM-208), could potentially replenish Orion's portfolio post-loss of Nubeqa exclusivity in 2033
** It notes opevesostat could sustain Orion's growthinto the 2030s, with the forecasted EUR 1.1 billion unrisked peak sales paid by Merck MRK.N
($1 = 0.8933 euros)
Reporting by Agata Rybska
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