Might the market stay hot in July?
Nasdaq rises ~0.5%; S&P 500, Dow edge up
Tech leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Materials weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.4%
Dollar, gold up slightly; crude, bitcoin both up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield jumps to ~4.48%
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MIGHT THE MARKET STAY HOT IN JULY?
The S&P 500 index .SPX rallied more than 3% in June, bringing its YTD rise to 14.5%. Can the rally persist?
Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at The Carson Group, is noting that the S&P 500 has been up nine years in a row in July and 11 of the past 12 years.
"That might sound like a lot, but it actually was up 11 years in a row from 1949 to ’59 and it had eight in a row back in the 1930s and ‘40s. Long win streaks apparently are quite normal for this month. The past 10 years July is the second best month on average, with only November better," writes Detrick in a note.
Detrick adds that summer rallies in election years are quite common. In fact, he says that the S&P 500 has gained more than 7% on average in an election year in June, July, and August.
Therefore, he cautions those thinking this summer rally is "running on fumes," that there still could be some left in the tank.
As for why July been such a good month of late, Detrick believes it's because July is second-quarter earnings season and there have been some very strong earnings lately.
"Seriously, every year we come into the year with all the bowtie-wearing economists telling us how bad everything is because of some small sample sized survey of purchasing managers, yet by the time we get around to second quarter earnings it becomes abundantly clear there is no recession coming and stocks soar," he writes.
In any event, here is a chart of the average monthly S&P 500 change. Since 1928, July, on average, has been the best month of the year for the S&P 500:
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
MONDAY DATA ROUND-UP: DUELING PMIs, CONSTRUCTION SPENDING - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET EDGES UP IN EARLY TRADE - CLICK HERE
AT 2024 HALFWAY MARK, MOMENTUM LEADS, BUT GROWTH IS ON ITS HEELS - CLICK HERE
YEN INTERVENTION THREAT KEEPS GS ON SIDELINES - CLICK HERE
FRENCH BANKS AVOIDING THE WORST FOR NOW - CLICK HERE
SKEWED RISK FROM PAYROLLS - CLICK HERE
FRENCH STOCKS BOUNCE BACK, BUT STILL BELOW EARLY JUNE LEVELS - CLICK HERE
FRENCH STOCKS SET TO RALLY AFTER FIRST ROUND OF VOTING - CLICK HERE
SPXAvgChgbymonth07012024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3W7ZEe9
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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