Norway's crown set for new 2024 highs
June 20 (Reuters) -Thursday's Norges Bank rate decision has done little to alter the NOK's bullish trajectory, indeed the hawkish hold may have set in motion a run to new 2024 highs for the crown.
The central bank's new rate path sees the benchmark unchanged at 4.5% for the remainder of the year. At its March policy meeting the bank had forecast a 2024 rate of 4.4%. For 2025 the rate is expected to be at 4.1%, and this from a 3.9% previous estimate. The bank actually set a very small hiking bias of two basis points in September and the new rate path only indicates a 20% probability of a cut in December.
EUR/NOK has been on a downward path since peaking at 11.8700 in May. There was a threat of a trend reversal in early June, but the rally failed just ahead of the daily Ichimoku cloud base, 11.5875. The subsequent pullback has reached 11.2860 following the Norges Bank policy news.
A series of daily lows from January, which may slow the EUR/NOK fall, provide support and bear targets at 11.2740, 11.2510 and 1.2250. The big downside level is at 11.1360, the Jan. 3 low.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/NOK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4cwSWnj
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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