October set to be a steady month for the SEK
Sept 26 (Reuters) -The main drivers for the Swedish crown through October are set to be more balanced and so the main bias versus the euro is likely to be sideways.
The latest input from the Riksbank, a 25-basis point rate cut and lowering of the rate path, has been absorbed by the market. The central bank pointed to further rate cuts at the November and December policy meetings. The crown will be open to dovish factoring but unless the Riksbank cuts by 50 basis points at one of those meetings the SEK downside could be limited.
The market is more concerned about growth now that the inflation battle is over and as such the dovish central bank stance will be viewed positively. As global interest rates fall the impact of lower domestic rates on the crown will be limited.
The European Central Bank's easing cycle might be paused in October despite doves pushing for a rate cut following weak data as hawks are still vocal and the rate call remains in the balance.
Technically, EUR/SEK is holding within a down trend, channel parameters currently at 11.1915-11.3925. However, there are some bullish pointers emerging. An Oct. 3 11.4800-4825 Ichimoku cloud twist could attract. Fourteen-day negative momentum is also fading.
Overall, the outlook for EUR/SEK is more balanced with some downside risk.
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EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3ZXfVoD
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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