Stronger levels for CEE currencies seen, but little relief
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Nov 1 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies could regain ground in coming months after falling to multi-month lows amid uncertainty before U.S. elections, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but pressure is unlikely to go away quickly for Hungary's forint.
The forint is central Europe's worst-performing currency in 2024, having lost almost 6% against the euro as of Wednesday's close. In the past month, it has depreciated more than 2% and hit more than 22-month lows.
Pressure has also come this week from data showing the Hungarian economy tilted into a technical recession.
In the poll, analysts saw the forint stronger in coming months. But after that expected bump, the currency is likely to continue in a weakening trend.
The poll's median forecast put the forint EURHUF= at 400 to the euro in three months, or 1.9% firmer than Wednesday's close. In 12 months the forint was seen at 405 per euro, just a touch firmer than levels seen this week.
"We expect the Hungarian forint to be stuck in the 400-410 range with a lot of... risks stemming from the U.S. election outcome and local economic and fiscal concerns," ING economist Peter Virovacz said.
Commerzbank said in a note on Thursday the forint's depreciation could raise concern at Hungary's central bank, which has paused a rate-cutting cycle. Government pressure to continue rate cuts could rise due to the weak economy, it said.
The local factors have mixed with a stronger dollar weighing on central Europe, as global investors see chances former president Donald Trump could win in U.S. elections on Nov. 5.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= touched a four-month low this week. It, too, was seen rebounding and keeping up gains, with the three-month median forecast at 4.30 per euro, up 1.3% from Wednesday's close, and at 4.2833 in 12 months' time.
The Czech crown should also recover from a fall and is seen 1.1% stronger in three months, at 25.10 to the euro, and 2.5% stronger in a year to lead gains in the region.
Romania's leu, in contrast, was expected to weaken a touch in the coming months and lose 0.5% in the next year to fall to 5.00 to the euro.
(Other stories from the November Reuters foreign exchange poll)
Reporting by Jason Hovet; Polling by Purujit Arun, Jaiganesh Mahesh and Renusri K; Editing by Mark Potter
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
