Ukraine faces winter power shortfall of one-third of peak demand, IEA says
Winter peak demand expected to rise to 18.5 GW
Shortfall of 6 GW equivalent to peak demand in Denmark
Ukraine's energy system increasingly vulnerable to attacks
EU says a fuel power plant to be sent to Ukraine to help
Adds EU commitment to provide new power station in paragraph 4
By Nina Chestney
LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters) -Ukraine's electricity supply shortfall could reach 6 gigawatts this winter, about a third of expected peak demand, amid Russian attacks on energy infrastructure and the expiry of a gas supply contract, the International Energy Agency said in a report.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine's energy system has been targeted by Russian attacks, resulting in rolling blackouts and limited electricity supply to some regions for hours each day.
Russia stepped up attacks in March in what Kyiv said looked like a concerted effort to degrade the system before winter, when temperatures often fall bellow -10 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit).
The European Union on Thursday offered to help, saying a fuel power plant was being dismantled in Lithuania to be rebuilt in Ukraine with the aim of restoring 2.5 GW of capacity. Electricity exports will also be increased, it said.
This summer, when electricity demand is usually lower than winter, Ukraine's generation capacity fell by more than 2 GW below peak demand of 12 GW, the International Energy Agency (IEA) report said. This winter, peak electricity demand could increase to 18.5 GW, it said.
Even when the country's nuclear plants return from maintenance outages and with electricity imports of 1.7 GW from European neighbouring countries, Ukraine's supply deficit could reach 6 GW, the equivalent of peak annual demand in Denmark, the report said.
"Further attacks on infrastructure, unforeseen equipment failures and missed maintenance cycles add further risks," the report said.
Ukraine used around 18 GW of power last winter, including imports, official data showed. It was producing 13 GW last March, an industry source said.
The energy ministry on Thursday said the country had lost 9 GW of generating capacity this year as a result of more than 1,000 Russian strikes. Ukraine has also attacked energy infrastructure in Russia but on a smaller scale, mainly focusing on oil refineries.
GAS DEAL EXPIRES
Ukraine could meet its gas demand needs from domestic production and storage under normal circumstances, but a colder than average winter would increase the need for imports.
A possible decrease in coal supply could also force Ukrainian thermal power plants to switch to gas. Most coal mines are located close to the front lines in Ukraine's east.
A gas supply transit deal with Russia's Gazprom is due to expire at the end of this year and Ukraine has said it does not wish to extend it. Additional gas supply would have to come from central and eastern Europe.
Another risk is disruption to gas and electricity supply in neighbouring Moldova. Although Moldova no longer relies directly on Russian gas to meet demand on the territory it controls, it receives around two-thirds of its electricity from a power plant in the breakaway, Russian-backed region of Transnistria.
Transmission capacity with continental Europe is shared between Ukraine and Moldova. If there are shortages in Moldova, the two countries need to agree to the distribution of imports, the report said.
To help Ukraine's energy security this winter, the IEA said that repair and construction work must be done to protect assets against further attacks, especially at network substations near nuclear plants.
Domestic energy saving measures, the delivery of more small combined heat and power units to the worst-hit areas, and better transmission of electricity imports were needed.
Ukraine will also need around 0.6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas imports in September and October to reach its gas storage target before Nov. 1.
Reporting by Nina Chestney; additional reporting by Pavel Polityuk in Kyiv
Editing by Mark Potter and Conor Humphries
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
