US dollar slightly weaker on diminishing inflation
U.S. PCE index unchanged in May, up 2.6% year-on-year
Chicago PMI index rises in June
Fed funds futures slightly lift rate cut chances in September
Dollar/yen up nearly 6% on the month, 1.9% on the quarter
Euro on track for biggest monthly fall since January
Adds new comment, graphics, updates prices
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar slippedon Friday after data showed inflation in the world's largest economy subsided last month, cementing expectations the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates this year.
The dollar initially fell against the yen, the currency pair most sensitive to U.S. economic data because of a high, positive correlation to Treasury yields. The greenback, however, edged higher to trade flat on the day, with investors still focused on the wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan.
The dollar was last up slightly against the Japanese unit at 160.815 yen JPY=EBS, after earlier hitting a 38-year high of 161.27 yen. Traders remained on high alert for intervention from Japanese authorities to boost its currency.
The U.S. currency has posted monthly and quarterly gains versus the yen of about 1.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
Data showed the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was unchanged last month, and followed an unrevised 0.3% gain in April, data showed. In the 12 months through May, the PCE price index increased 2.6% after advancing 2.7% in April.
"The PCE report was mostly in line with expectations, which confirms the disinflationary trend as shown by the CPI (consumer price index), PPI (producer price index) numbers earlier this month," said Boris Kovacevic, global macro strategist at Convera in Vienna, Austria. "The macro data continues to point to a softening of the U.S. economy."
Following the inflation data, fed funds futures slightly raised the chances of easing in September to around 67%, from about 65% late Thursday, according to LSEG calculations. The market is also pricing between one to two rate cuts of 25 bps each this year.
A separate report on Thursday showed business activity in the Midwest came in better than expected, modestly helping the dollar. The Chicago purchasing managers' index (PMI) USCPMI=ECI jumped to 47.4 from 35 in May, and better than the 40 that economists projected.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment, meanwhile, showed a reading of a better-than-expected 68.2 for June, also dollar-supportive. In addition, respondents to the sentiment survey expect near- and long-term inflation expectations to level out at 3%.
Investors will now focus on next week's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, in which Wall Street economists are forecasting a gain of 195,000 in June, compared with 272,000 in May.
"Next week’s employment report will give us the opportunity to see if the job market is slowing," said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth, in emailed comments.
"This number will have to be a big surprise to the downside to suggest the Fed will act in July to lower rates. We expect the Fed to stay pat unless the job market starts to falter."
In other currencies, the euro was up 0.1% at $1.0709EUR=EBS.
The euro, down 1.3% against the dollar in June, was on track for its biggest monthly fall since January as political uncertainty weighed in the run-up to France's general elections.
For the second quarter, Europe's single currency fell 0.7%.
Investors fear a new French government could increase fiscal spending, threatening the sustainability of the country's public debt and the financial stability of the bloc.
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was little changed at 0.8986 francs CHF=EBS.
Aside from the economic data, market participants were also focused on U.S. politics.
Republican U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump unleashed a barrage of at-times false attacks on President Joe Biden in their first campaign debate in Atlanta, with the dollar rising as Biden stumbled over his words a few times in early exchanges.
The debate increased the odds of a Trump presidency and the imposition of import tariffs. Traders bought dollars overall as a Trump administration suggests more aggressive tariffs that could be inflationary and could trigger higher interest rates.
Currency bid prices at 28 June 04:28 p.m. GMT | |||||||
Description | RIC | Last | U.S. Close Previous Session | Pct Change | YTD Pct | High Bid | Low Bid |
Dollar index | =USD | 105.79 | 105.89 | -0.08% | 4.36% | 106.13 | 105.78 |
Euro/Dollar | EUR=EBS | 1.072 | 1.0704 | 0.15% | -2.88% | $1.0722 | $1.0685 |
Dollar/Yen | JPY=D3 | 160.84 | 160.81 | 0.02% | 14.03% | 161.27 | 160.305 |
Euro/Yen | EURJPY= | 1.072 | 172.06 | 0.22% | 10.79% | 172.44 | 171.46 |
Dollar/Swiss | CHF=EBS | 0.8985 | 0.8988 | -0.03% | 6.76% | 0.901 | 0.898 |
Sterling/Dollar | GBP=D3 | 1.2645 | 1.2639 | 0.06% | -0.62% | $1.267 | $1.0685 |
Dollar/Canadian | CAD=D3 | 1.368 | 1.3701 | -0.14% | 3.21% | 1.3734 | 1.3676 |
Aussie/Dollar | AUD=D3 | 0.6674 | 0.6648 | 0.4% | -2.11% | $0.6685 | $0.662 |
Euro/Swiss | EURCHF= | 0.9629 | 0.9617 | 0.12% | 3.69% | 0.9639 | 0.961 |
Euro/Sterling | EURGBP= | 0.8474 | 0.8468 | 0.07% | -2.24% | 0.8481 | 0.8458 |
NZ Dollar/Dollar | NZD=D3 | 0.6095 | 0.6083 | 0.19% | -3.55% | $0.6101 | 0.6058 |
Dollar/Norway | NOK= | 10.6637 | 10.6221 | 0.39% | 5.22% | 10.6948 | 10.6116 |
Euro/Norway | EURNOK= | 11.4325 | 11.3732 | 0.52% | 1.86% | 11.4347 | 11.367 |
Dollar/Sweden | SEK= | 10.5942 | 10.6226 | -0.27% | 5.24% | 10.6618 | 10.583 |
Euro/Sweden | EURSEK= | 11.3586 | 11.3755 | -0.15% | 2.1% | 11.4033 | 11.3364 |
Inflation gauges https://reut.rs/3XCpWGu
UMich inflation expectations https://reut.rs/3L1i0XV
Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo in Milan; Editing by Sharon Singleton, Chris Reese and Diane Craft
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