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US natgas prices ease to 7-week low on output rise, ample storage



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Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

July 3 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% to a seven-week low on Wednesday on a rise in output so far in July and the oversupply of gas still in storage.

Gas stockpiles were now about 19% above normal for this time of year.

That small price decline occurred despite an expected smaller-than-usual weekly storage build for this time of year and forecasts the brutal heat wave blanketing much of the country will remain in place through at least mid-July.

That heat is forcing power generators to burn more gas than usual to produce power to keep air conditioners humming.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 32 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended June 28.

That was in line with the 32-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 76 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 69 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Traders said storage builds have been smaller than usual for eight weeks in a row after several producers cut output earlier in the year in response to a drop in futures prices to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March.

Higher prices in recent weeks, however, prompted some producers, including EQT EQT.N and Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, to return to the well pad.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.7 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.418 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 15 for a third day in a row.

Recent declines in the front-month caused futures for September NGQ24-U24, which usually trade at a discount to August, to jump to a record premium of around 3.1 cents per mmBtu over the August contract.

In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas plunged from a negative 52 cents per mmBtu for Tuesday to negative $2.06 for Wednesday as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian Shale.

It was the fourth time in seven days that Waha prices fell into negative territory during the current heat wave and the 21st time so far this year.

Next-day Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six in 2020, none in 2021 or 2022, and once in 2023.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial data firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 101.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July.

That was up from an average of 100.2 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May as many producers reduced drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 98.4 bcfd this week to 104.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts aresimilar to LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 12.4 bcfd so far in July due mostly to a decline in feedgas at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana earlier this week, down from 12.8 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Week ended June 28 Actual

Week ended June 21 Actual

Year ago June 28

Five-year average

June 28


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+32

+57

+76

+69


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,134

3,102

2,859

2,638


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

18.8%

20.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.43

2.44

2.64

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

10.37

10.61

9.58

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.56

12.54

11.44

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

2

2

8

8

4

U.S. GFS CDDs

255

254

168

175

198

U.S. GFS TDDs

257

256

176

183

202

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

99.6

101.7

101.6

103.3

95.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.8

7.9

7.4

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

107.5

109.6

109.1

N/A

112.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.8

1.7

1.6

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

6.7

6.6

6.9

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

12.3

12.3

12.5

13.0

8.6

U.S. Commercial

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.5

U.S. Residential

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

U.S. Power Plant

45.3

41.2

46.5

44.9

43.3

U.S. Industrial

21.7

21.6

21.6

21.2

21.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

5.0

5.0

4.9

4.9

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

82.3

77.8

83.3

81.0

79.9

Total U.S. Demand

103.1

98.4

104.4

N/A

96.9

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

75

75

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

78

78

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jul 5

Week ended Jun 28

Week ended Jun 21

Week ended Jun 14

Week ended Jun 7

Wind

11

9

12

9

11

Solar

6

5

6

6

6

Hydro

5

5

6

7

7

Other

1

1

1

1

1

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

43

40

41

41

Coal

17

19

18

16

15

Nuclear

18

17

17

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.06

2.21


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.33

1.59


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

2.83

3.45


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.34

1.58


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.58

1.73


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.43

1.63


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.20

2.40


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

-2.06

-0.52




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.53

0.53



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

30.50

31.75



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

42.50

35.75


Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

27.25

26.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

41.12

34.33




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

66.00

24.50


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

58.25

24.50




Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Franklin Paul and Trevor Hunnicutt

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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