U.S. stock futures digest latest jobs data
U.S. equity index futures slightly green
Jun nonfarm payroll 206k vs 190k estimate
Jun unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4% estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.3%
Dollar slips; bitcoin slides >5%; crude edges up; gold gains
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield dips to ~4.32%
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U.S. STOCK FUTURES DIGEST LATEST JOBS DATA
The main U.S. equity index futures are slightly positive, but roughly flat with where they were, after the release of the latest data on U.S. employment. E-mini S&P 500 futures ESc1 are up around 0.1% vs roughly unchanged just before the data came out.
The June non-farm payroll headline jobs number came in at 206k which was slightly above the 190k estimate. The unemployment rate came in at 4.1% vs a 4% estimate, and 4% last month.
Wage data, on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis, was in-line with estimates. Both of these numbers were below last month's reads.
Of note, the prior headline jobs read for May was revised down to 218k from 272k:
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the FOMC sits on its hands and leaves rates unchanged at its July 30-31 meeting has risen slightly. It is now 95% vs 91% just prior to the release of the numbers. The chance that the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points is now 5% vs 9%.
Looking further into 2024, the market is still showing a bias for rates to tick down 25 basis points in September, and then again in December. The conviction over those cuts, however, has increased.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR is now around 4.32% vs 4.33% just before the payroll data was released. The yield ended at 4.35% on Wednesday.
Changes are relatively modest, but most of the S&P 500 .SPX sector SPDR ETFs are higher in premarket trade with consumer discretionary XLY.P, up around 0.4%, posting the biggest rise.
The SPDR S&P regional banking ETF KRE.P is up around 0.3%.
Regarding the jobs data, Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin, said:
“Manufacturing just can’t catch a break. Employment was flat and narrow with only 45.8% of manufacturing industries reporting job gains. Within construction, a bright-spot in this report, it was mostly non-residential specialty trade contractors that saw the gains."
Jacobsen added "A worrying trend is the 18% increase over the last year of the number of people working part-time because that’s all they could find. It’s not all sunshine and happiness despite the nice headline numbers.”
Here is a premarket snapshot:
(Terence Gabriel, Chuck Mikolajczak)
*****
FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
NEXT PIT STOP FOR NEARSHORING - CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE - CLICK HERE
NEXT UP: PAYROLLS - CLICK HERE
UK LABOUR'S WIN: A BURDEN FOR DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS AND INSURANCE, A RELIEF FOR UTILITIES - CLICK HERE
THE RISE OF THE MODERATES, EYES ON FRANCE - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCKS HIGHER, BRITAIN'S MID-CAPS HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2022 - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES HIGHER; ELECTIONS, PAYROLLS IN FOCUS - CLICK HERE
STARMER'S STEADY START - CLICK HERE
JuneNFPLMpreM07052024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4f4D5hZ
premarket07052024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3W8yrYI
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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