What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, September 23
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ON MONDAY
A host of U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers are due to speak at different events. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak virtually on the economic outlook before the Distinguished Speakers Seminar convened by the European Economics and Financial Centre at the University of London. (0800/1200) Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is due to participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy and the U.S. economy before the National Association of State Treasurers Annual Conference. (1015/1415) Separately, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is set to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Leadership Exchange 2024. (1300/1700)
On the U.S. economic calendar, S&P Global is expected to report that its flash manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5 in September, following a final reading of 47.9 in the prior month. Meanwhile, flash services PMI for September is likely to edge down to 55.3 from a reading of 55.7 in August.
For the Latin American region, Mexico's statistics agency INEGI is scheduled to publish economic activity figures for July.
REST OF THE WEEK
On U.S. economic data front, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis is expected to report on Friday that inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, increased 0.1% in August, compared with a 0.2% gain in July. In the 12 months through August, the PCE price index is expected to have risen 2.3%, after a rise of 2.5% in July. Meanwhile, the August core PCE price index is expected to have increased 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% annually. Consumer spending is likely to have increased 0.3% in August, following a 0.5% gain in July. On Thursday, the final reading of gross domestic product is expected to come in at 2.9% for the second quarter. Meanwhile, the core PCE Prices final for the second quarter is likely to have risen 2.8% in line with the preliminary figures. On the same day, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau will likely report a 2.6% drop in orders of durable goods for August, after advancing 9.8% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Labor Department is expected to release weekly initial jobless claims numbers, which are likely to rise by 6000 to 225,000 for the week ending September 21. On Wednesday, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau is likely to show that new home sales eased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 700,000 units last month, down from 739,000 units in June. On Tuesday, the Conference Board is expected to report its consumer confidence index increased to 103.8 in September, compared to a reading of 103.3 in the prior month. On Friday, the University of Michigan's final September reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment is expected to come in at 69.3.
U.S. Fed policymakers will appear at different events through the week. On Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr are scheduled to speak before the 2024 Treasury Market Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Meanwhile, Boston Fed President Susan Collins is due to host virtually a fireside chat with Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler focused on the intersection between bank supervision and financial inclusion, as part of the Boston Fed's Financial Inclusion and Banking Supervision Workshop. At the same event, Kashkari is set to host virtually a fireside chat with Barr on the Fed's community development work, opportunities and challenges associated with AI and machine learning to increase access to credit.
Costco is expected to post a rise in fourth-quarter revenue on Thursday on the back of steady demand for cheaper groceries at its membership-only stores from budget-conscious consumers. Investors will look for demand in discretionary categories heading into the holiday season.
Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Jorgensen is due to testify in a hearing focusing on U.S. prices for weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy in front of the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.
A series of Reuters Next Newsmaker interviews are scheduled through the week during the New York Climate Week. On Tuesday, ECB Head of Climate Change Centre Irene Heemskerk is due to discuss the new climate initiatives being pursued by the ECB during an interview with Reuters U.S. Economics Editor Dan Burns. On Wednesday, HSBC's Celine Herweijer and Martin Richards are scheduled to speak with Reuters Sustainable Finance Editor Simon Jessop about the challenge of providing 'transition' finance to companies, the outlook for climate tech and potential hot investments in the months ahead. In another event the same day, Rajith Sebastian, head of ESG for the New York State Insurance Fund and Sam Scroggins, Managing Director in Lazard's Global Power, Energy & Infrastructure Group, are due to explore how the risks of physical climate shocks and changing energy policy are influencing where and how capital gets allocated, and what this means for the transition to a low-carbon economy.
On Wednesday, Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Alastair Borthwick is scheduled to speak at the BofA Securities Annual Financials CEO Conference in London. Deutsche Bank CFO James von Moltke, UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel and a Commerzbank executive are also among the speakers.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is slated to join the Italian Tech Week event in Turin on Thursday.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada Governor is scheduled to participate on Tuesday in a discussion at the Institute of International Finance and The Canadian Bankers Association Canada Forum 2024 in Toronto. Separately, the Canadian economy likely expanded 0.1% on an annualized basis in July, the country statistics agency is scheduled to report in the latest GDP figures on Friday.
In the Latin America region, Mexico's central bank is set to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate in a divided vote to 10.75% in August. Separately, Brazil's IPCA-15 index mid-month consumer price inflation data for September is due on Wednesday, while the IGP-M inflation index for September is expected on Friday. Additionally, the country's current account figures for August are due for release on Wednesday. On Tuesday, Mexico's statistics agency is expected to release consumer prices data for the first half of September. Argentina's statistics agency INDEC is scheduled to publish current account data for the third quarter on Friday. The government agency will also release economic activity figures for July on Wednesday.
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Compiled by Lactus Fernandes in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore
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