Yen bulls overly excited by Ishiba's win
The yen’s surge after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party narrowly chose political veteran Shigeru Ishiba as its leader is a position correction more so than renewed faith the currency’s prospects.
The four-yen range Friday suggests short positions in the Japanese currency were stretched ahead of election results.
Some view Ishiba’s ascension as an end to Abenomics, paving the way for more Bank of Japan tightening and a stronger yen.
But, on Friday, he stressed the need to boost consumption in order for the country to emerge from deflation. His comments come as he looks to build popularity ahead of a national vote. Markets may see this as offering hope for policy doves at the Bank of Japan.
More so than Ishiba’s views, central bankers need to consider inflation before tightening. On Friday, Tokyo CPI, a proxy for the national reading, was reported to have slowed to 2.2% in September from 2.6% in August. Any sign prices are softening will keep policymakers on hold and the yen rangebound.
With spot orbiting 143.00, breakout levels to watch include the edges of its 140.22-146.11 Bollinger range, the year-to-date low of 139.58 and Aug. 5 carry-unwind high of 146.55.
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(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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