BofA sees global refining margins pressured into next year
** Bank of America says in a note dated Oct. 18 that refining margins globally have eroded since 2022, weighed on by gasoil, diesel and jet cracks
** Says global refining capacity growth of 1.13 mln barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 & 730,000 bpd in 2025 could overwhelm oil demand next year, weighing on margins
** Refining growth driven primarily by startingof Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, Yulong Refinery in China, and several Middle East refinery projects; expect 2025 and 2026 to have notable expansions in Mexico's Dos Bocas, India's Panipat, and China offsetting a slew of refinery closures in Europe and the U.S., BofA says
** "Excluding natural gas liquids and biofuels (which bypass refining system entirely) leaves just 300,000 bpd and 570,000 bpd of liquids demand growth in 2024 and 2025...assuming no material startup delays" - BofA
** "Demand growth is primarily driven by NGLs/LPGs and jet fuel this year, and in 2025 and 2026, NGLs and naphtha account for more than half of global demand growth, while gasoline and jet fuel growth slow further"
** "...without China to help drive global gasoline demand growth into the future, the market will need to look to other developing economics for additional support"
Reporting by Seher Dareen in Bengaluru
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