Green light ahead? Citi sees year-end auto rally
STOXX 600 rises 0.6%
Positive earnings give support
Euro zone business activity stuck
Nasdaq futures lifted by Tesla
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GREEN LIGHT AHEAD? CITI SEES YEAR-END AUTO RALLY
The updates from Tesla TSLA.O and Renault RENA.PA are providing a breath of fresh air to battered autos .SXAP, the worst-performing sector in Europe this year due to concerns over intense Chinese competition, trade wars, and slowing demand.
On top of that, there's also a hopeful note from Citi, which after September's "perfect storm" caused by China woes, sees scope for a year-end rally, even though the recovery in car sales has stalled.
"European auto OEM sentiment remains at multi-year lows following continued weakness in EPS momentum and profit warnings. We don't think the overall EPS outlook improves significantly in 2025," writes Citi analyst Harald Hendrikse.
"However, helped by CB rate cuts, resilient U.S. economics, China stimulus, and anticipated help on EU CO2 regulations, we think autos could see a Q4 seasonal cyclical rotation rally as it has been over the years," he adds.
Meanwhile, some fund mangers have been seizing last month's selloff to buy car stocks on the cheap.
Among them is LFG+ZEST Chief Investment Officer Alberto Conca, who bought BMW BMWG.DE, Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE and Porsche P911_p.DE. Yet, he is not betting on easy gains.
"BMW is trading at the same multiples as during the 2009 crisis. Either the sector is facing today an existential crisis like the one faced by the economic system back in 2009, or if this is not true, then BMW, like many auto stocks can (deliver good performance) in the next five years" he said.
"It's not the classic stock that you can buy and hope to make money quickly," Conca added.
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