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Reuters - 2 days ago

FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium No surprise to see FX option implied volatility under broad based pressure as risk appetite and a weaker USD leave FX subdued within well worn ranges. U.S. holiday-thinned markets played their part, as did the passing of Friday's U.S. NFP data close to expectations. GBP/USD benefits from the weaker USD with negligible support from the landslide win for the Labour party in the UK election, which had been widely expected .
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Reuters - 2 days ago

Are FX options signaling complacency over French election risks?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are FX options signaling complacency over French election risks? July 5 (Reuters) - The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive is an unknown, yet key parameter of their premiums, so dealers use implied volatility - their best guess. But this bellwether for real FX volatility expectations has almost erased all of the additional risk premium it had accumulated before the first round the of the French election and opens questions about complacency before Sunday's deciding second-ro
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Reuters - 2 days ago

China's yuan steady as PBOC hints about bond sales push up yields

China's yuan steady as PBOC hints about bond sales push up yields SHANGHAI, July 5 (Reuters) - China's yuan held steady on Friday against the U.S. dollar as yields for Chinese government bonds rose across the curve amid hints from the central bank that it could embark on large-scale bond sales. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has hundreds of billions of yuan worth of medium- and long-term bonds at its disposal to borrow and sell , it said on Friday - part of plan markets see as an effort to co
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Reuters - 2 days ago

Bearish yuan consensus strong, but charts raise doubt

BUZZ-COMMENT-Bearish yuan consensus strong, but charts raise doubt July 5 (Reuters) - Fundamentally, the bearish outlook for China's yuan is hard to argue against, but the daily USD/CNH chart suggests traders should be nimble in the event of a deeper technical pullback. USD/CNH on Thursday broke below 7.2970, the trendline support from May's low, to close at 7.2918. The next floor to watch is the 21-day moving average at 7.2853 , which should attract dip-buying.
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Reuters - 3 days ago

FX options wrap - AUD/USD 0.7000, JPY clues, UK election, cheap NFP

BUZZ-FX options wrap - AUD/USD 0.7000, JPY clues, UK election, cheap NFP The U.S. July 4 Independence Day holiday when combined with improved risk sentiment and the weaker dollar, has kept pressure on implied volatility on Thursday. Additional FX volatility premium for Friday's U.S. NFP data appears to be on the low side when comparing current overnight expiry implied volatility with prior levels, especially in EUR/USD .
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Reuters - 3 days ago

Societe Generale advocates topside AUD/USD option calls

BUZZ-COMMENT-Societe Generale advocates topside AUD/USD option calls July 4 (Reuters) - Societe Generale recommends buying a 3-month expiry AUD call/USD spread via foreign exchange options with strikes at 0.6900 and 0.7000. Designed to be held until expiry, the option can return five times the premium paid if AUD/USD is above 0.7000. SocGen FX derivatives strategist Olivier Korber's rationale is that the Australian dollar may be the most resilient in the face of U.S.
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Reuters - 3 days ago

FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets Implied volatility is under pressure in most of the major G10 currency pairs, which is consistent with low realised volatility within familiar FX ranges. The impending U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and better risk appetite/USD losses, are playing their part . Euro-related FX option premiums have almost fully retraced the significant gains that were made in the wake of the French election call in mid-June.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

The FX outlook according to options

BUZZ-COMMENT-The FX outlook according to options July 3 (Reuters) - FX options are forward looking and thrive on FX volatility and directional moves, so their price action and trade flows can offer clues on the perceived FX outlook. Implied volatility gauges the unknown realised volatility risk, which is key to an option premium - it's on the back foot in many of the most commonly traded G10 currency pairs.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

India rupee-Chinese yuan carry trade to hold appeal until US election outcome, fx analysts say

India rupee-Chinese yuan carry trade to hold appeal until US election outcome, fx analysts say By Jaspreet Kalra and Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, July 3 (Reuters) - Playing the currencies of the world's two most populous nations against each other has been a popular choice for carry traders and will hold its appeal until at least the results of the U.S. elections later this year, traders and currency analysts said.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

Rupee nearly flat wedged between yuan weakness, dip in US bond yields

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee nearly flat wedged between yuan weakness, dip in US bond yields By Jaspreet Kalra MUMBAI, July 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was little changed on Wednesday as a dip in U.S. bond yields did little to help Asian currencies which remained under pressure due to weakness in the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. The rupee INR=IN was at 83.50 against the U.S.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

China's yuan slides to seven-month low on weak economic data

China's yuan slides to seven-month low on weak economic data By Summer Zhen HONG KONG, July 3 (Reuters) - China's yuan skidded to a seven-month low against the dollar on Wednesday on weak economic data and as the central bank nudged the currency's trading range a little bit lower. At 0410 GMT, the yuan CNY=CFXS was down about 0.03% at 7.2733 and had traded as low as 7.2736, the weaker end of its daily trading band.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

China's bond buys may kill three birds with one stone

BUZZ-COMMENT-China's bond buys may kill three birds with one stone July 3 (Reuters) - The People's Bank of China may very soon participate in the secondary bond market , for the first time in 17 years, to address sliding government bond yields. That should stabilise bond prices , while possibly helping the stock market and even the yuan. Domestic investors' rush into Chinese sovereign debt has been attributed to an ' asset famine ', amid the stock market malaise.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

Rupee may dip amid little relief for Asian peers from Powell's remarks

INDIA RUPEE-Rupee may dip amid little relief for Asian peers from Powell's remarks By Nimesh Vora MUMBAI, July 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open marginally weaker or flat on Wednesday as comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman on inflation progress provided scant relief to Asian peers. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee INR=IN will open in the 83.50-83.52 range to the U.S.
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Reuters - 4 days ago

FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan While French election risk premiums have eased and UK election risk premiums are small, there's been a pick up in demand for USD call options since last weeks U.S. Presidential debate helped Trump's ratings. Euro related options have seen their volatility and EUR put over call premiums lowered since the first round of French election results.
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Reuters - 5 days ago

French election risk to euro, according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-French election risk to euro, according to FX options July 2 (Reuters) - When the French election was first called on June 9, there was a significant increase in FX option premium to reflect the volatility and directional risk to the euro, and these premiums remain a reliable bellwether. Volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in.
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Reuters - 5 days ago

China's yuan slumps to seven-month low on weaker guidance

China's yuan slumps to seven-month low on weaker guidance SHANGHAI, July 2 (Reuters) - China's yuan slumped to a fresh seven-month low against the dollar on Tuesday, as the greenback strengthened following a surge in U.S. yields, with investors now contemplating the prospect a second Donald Trump presidency. The currency was also weighed by a broad shift in the central bank's daily guidance that analysts say indicates authorities are willing to allow the yuan to ease further.
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Reuters - 5 days ago

FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk French elections have driven euro-related implied volatility to new long-term highs alongside EUR puts over call premiums on risk reversals, but there's been some relief selling after the first-round results. EUR/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility is back at 5.9 from 6.5 on Friday and a long-term peak at 7.75 in mid June.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead Overnight expiry euro related options have seen their FX volatility risk premiums increase since expiry now includes the first round results of the impending French elections. The premium/break-even for overnight EUR/USD opened in London around 70 USD pips - a new 2024 peak . There's a clear preference to own EUR/USD downside strikes as reflected by risk reversals - their EUR put over call implied volatility premiums saw a signi
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Huge demand for one particular French election hedge

BUZZ-COMMENT-Huge demand for one particular French election hedge June 28 (Reuters) - There has been a significant increase in premium and demand for an array of Euro related FX options since the announcement of impending French elections, but one particular trade stands out - risk reversals. Risk reversals are simple vanilla FX options that consist of a put strike set against a call strike - the right to sell a currency versus buy it.
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Reuters - 1 week ago

China's yuan edges higher, traders digest U.S. presidential debate

China's yuan edges higher, traders digest U.S. presidential debate By Summer Zhen HONG KONG, June 28 (Reuters) - The yuan rose slightly against the dollar but remained near seven-month lows, with the first U.S. presidential debate of 2024 providing little impetus for the market. Supported by firmer central bank guidance, the yuan CNY=CFXS was 0.01% higher at 7.2678 to the dollar as of 0312 GMT, after trading in a range of 7.2641 to 7.2685. Analysts said the first debate between Democratic U.S.
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