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FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk French elections have driven euro-related implied volatility to new long-term highs alongside EUR puts over call premiums on risk reversals, but there's been some relief selling after the first-round results. EUR/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility is back at 5.9 from 6.5 on Friday and a long-term peak at 7.75 in mid June.
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Sterling loses ground to euro after French election first round

Sterling loses ground to euro after French election first round By Harry Robertson LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - The pound slipped against the euro on Monday as the single currency rallied on investor expectations that France's far right party might not secure an outright majority after winning the first round of a national election. The euro EURGBP=D3 was up 0.27% against the pound at 84.97 pence, climbing further away from a two-year low of 83.97 pence hit in mid-June.
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FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead Overnight expiry euro related options have seen their FX volatility risk premiums increase since expiry now includes the first round results of the impending French elections. The premium/break-even for overnight EUR/USD opened in London around 70 USD pips - a new 2024 peak . There's a clear preference to own EUR/USD downside strikes as reflected by risk reversals - their EUR put over call implied volatility premiums saw a signi
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Bulk of GBP impact from UK election to stem from exit poll

BUZZ-COMMENT-Bulk of GBP impact from UK election to stem from exit poll June 28 (Reuters) - The UK will head to polls in just under a week, though compared to previous UK elections there is less uncertainty than usual about the outcome of the July 4 vote. Opinion polls have consistently shown that the Labour Party is set for a historic majority. As a result, the initial impact on sterling is expected to be considerably more muted than in recent times.
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead June 28 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes worth noting for Friday June 28 and larger strikes for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes expiring on Monday are at 1.0685 on 1.3 billion euros and at 1.0700 on 2.6 billion euros.
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