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AUDUSD

XM Research

XM Research - 2 hours agoBullish

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD challenges upper limit of its range

AUDUSD attempts to break above sideways structure Oscillators are heavily tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now, unable to adopt a clear directional impetus. However, in the last two sessions, the bulls have been testing the upper end of the neutral pattern, where a decisive break could trigger a sharp move to the upside.
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XM Research - 1 day agoBullish

AUDUSD develops in an upward sloping channel RSI and MACD continue the upside move AUDUSD is creating several green 4-hour sessions after the bounce off the 200-period simple moving average (SMA). The pair has been trading within an ascending channel since June 17, with immediate resistance at 0.6687 that failed a couple of times to break it.
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XM Research - 1 day ago

Investors await NFP to validate their Fed rate cut bets – Preview

Investors expect two rate cuts, even though Fed signals one Recent data corroborates investors’ take Nonfarm payrolls waited for more confirmation The report comes out on Friday, at 12:30 GMT   Fed appears hawkish, but data paint a different picture At its latest gathering, the FOMC appeared more hawkish than expected, revising its interest rate projections from three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year to just one.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Market Comment – Stocks’ asthmatic reaction keeps dollar in demand

US stocks edge higher amidst quiet newsflow French elections are around the corner Aussie and loonie benefit from hotter CPI reports Yen remains under pressure Dollar records small gains against the euro The US dollar is trying to find its footing as the market prepares for Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden and Friday’s PCE inflation report.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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XM Research - 2 weeks agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD extends sideways movement

AUDUSD trades back and forth within its range The ascending 50-day SMA acts as a strong floor Oscillators remain tilted to the bullish side AUDUSD has been trading sideways for more than a month now as the price has been unable to jump above the five-month high of 0.6713. However, the pair’s downside also seems to be capped by the upward sloping 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Fedspeak and US retail sales could test dollar’s resilience

Fedspeak could prove market-moving this week Retail sales could surprise on the downside RBA members discussed again to hike rates Dollar still in charge but aussie rallies Fed speakers to move the market again? Amidst a holiday-shortened week, Fed speakers will be out in force, and it will be interesting to see if the hawks adopt an even more aggressive rhetoric.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF

GBPUSD holds a bearish bias ahead of UK inflation, BoE rate decision AUDUSD retains neutral outlook as all eyes turn to the RBA policy decision USDCHF sustains 0.8890 floor; Will the SNB trigger the next bull wave?   BoE rate decision --> GBPUSD UK CPI inflation and the Bank of England’s rate decision could produce a new wave of volatility for GBPUSD on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Euro extends losses on French election jitters

Euro hits 6-week low as risk premium for French debt jumps But equities mixed as selloff eases Trio of central bank decisions eyed Euro rocked by fresh fears of a debt crisis Concerns about the real risk of a far-right government in France continue to dog the euro after they resurfaced towards the end of last week. Having shed more than 1% so far in June, the euro is struggling to hold on to the $1.07 level on Monday and is currently trading at more than six-week lows.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

RBA policy meeting may be muted; aussie remains choppy – Preview

RBA interest rate expected to remain unchanged Sticky inflation and economy’s uncertainty still a concern Aussie holds in downward channel ahead of Tuesday’s decision at 04:30 GMT Australia’s uncertain economy and sustained inflation The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to announce its June policy decision early on Tuesday, likely maintaining the central bank's agenda.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD holds within descending channel

AUDUSD finds support at 50-day SMA Momentum oscillators head south AUDUSD has been developing within a downward sloping channel over the last month, finding strong support near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), which overlaps with the 0.6580 support. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is suggesting more losses as it is dropping beneath the 20 level, while the MACD is standing beneath its trigger line above the zero level.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Chinese CPI expected to tick up Australian employment data may take aussie higher China CPI is due on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT Australia’s jobs data will follow on Thursday at 01:30 GMT RBA may cut rates during 2024 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still considered to be one of the most hawkish among the main world central banks, despite the fact that the weaker-than-expected GDP figures for the first quarter out of Australia diminished bets about a rate hike. In
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Week Ahead – Fed and BoJ decide on monetary policy

US CPI data and Fed to determine the dollar’s fate Will the BoJ signal that another rate hike is looming? Pound traders await UK employment and GDP numbers RBA hike bets shrink ahead of AU jobs and China CPI data   Mind the dots With US inflation resuming its downtrend in April and the ISM manufacturing PMI for May disappointing, investors remained convinced that the Fed will begin lowering interest rates at some point this year.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Market Comment – Fed rate cut bets grow but dollar steadies, BoC to likely cut

Soft US data continues to pile up, boosting Fed rate cut bets But dollar on steadier footing ahead of ISM services PMI Bank of Canada expected to cut rates today, loonie slips Oil slide deepens, stocks struggle for direction All eyes on ISM services PMI after soft data run After repeated setbacks, the needle finally seems to be shifting for the Fed to start cutting rates soon, with bets for a September move gaining significant traction in recent days.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Week Ahead – ECB rate cut might get eclipsed by BoC surprise and NFP report

ECB set to slash rates on Thursday, focus on forward guidance But will the BoC take the lead when it meets on Wednesday? US jobs report eyed on Friday as Fed unyielding on cuts OPEC+ might extend some output reductions into 2025 ECB poised to cut rates, but what’s next? The path by central banks to lower borrowing costs has been far from smooth, but it seems that the European Central Bank will be among the first to reach its desired destination.
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XM Research - 1 month agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – AUDUSD bullish tendency in doubt

AUDUSD in the green again today, above a key trendline AUD has managed to withstand the recent USD strength Momentum indicators mixed; stochastics could send a bearish signal AUDUSD is recording another green candle today as the market continues to react positively to the recent data releases from Australia and, in particular, the hotter April inflation print.
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