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EURUSD

XM Research

XM Research - 1 day ago

Market Comment – Market craves dovish Fedspeak as US stocks reach new highs

US stocks rally after Chairman Powell’s comments Focus on key US data today ahead of Thursday’s bank holiday Dovish ECB commentary to keep euro under pressure Dollar/yen rally continues US stocks rally after Powell’s comments The ECB-dominated forum held in Sintra, Portugal, managed to produce market-moving headlines for the Fed.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Market Comment – Yen’s misery worsens, euro lower after CPI dip, dollar awaits Powell

Yen sinks to fresh 38-year low as officials refrain from verbal intervention Euro pares gains after CPI dip and French election uncertainty Dollar edges up on higher yields, but caution ahead of Powell comments Yen languishes at 38-year low    The Japanese yen ploughed a fresh 38-year low against its US counterpart on Tuesday, hitting 161.75 per dollar, amid ongoing doubts about the Bank of Japan’s ambition to normalize monetary policy and an unexpected pickup in US yields.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Technical Analysis – EURUSD slides after bullish gap

EURUSD pulls back from 50-day SMA RSI and MACD still point up EURUSD opened with a bullish gap today after the French elections on Sunday but is currently trading near its opening level. The price stands beneath the 1.0720 resistance level, with an indication of recouping the gap. The RSI and the MACD are heading north beneath their mid-levels.
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XM Research - 3 days agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD gaps higher over potential French hung parliament

EURUSD surges after French far-right party wins first race with weaker majority Bullish bias expected to come above 1.0788; sellers could take control below 1.0670   EURUSD opened with a positive gap on Monday after Le Pen’s far right party dominated the first round of the election on Sunday with a smaller margin than analysts expected, increasing speculation that an absolute majority on July 7 might be a struggle for the Euro-sceptic party.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Market Comment – Euro breathes better but not out of the woods yet

European stock markets higher after French elections result Key euro area data today as the annual ECB forum starts Dollar on the back foot amidst a very busy week Yen remains under pressure Euro gains despite strong result from the National Rally party France’s National Rally party confirmed expectations by winning the highest level of support in the first round of the country’s parliamentary elections, ahead of the left-wing New Popular Front coalition and miles ahead
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XM Research - 6 days ago

What can we expect from the ISM business PMIs next week? – Preview

ISM manufacturing PMI to tick higher; services PMI to lose some pace Business outlook could stay unchanged; rate cut forecasts will remain inflation-driven    EURUSD stays neutral after core PCE inflation; needs a strong rebound above 1.0885   What happened previously? Dollar traders will pay close attention to the US ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI readings for June due on Monday and Wednesday respectively at 14:00 GMT.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Eurozone CPI report: further noise or a proper signal to cut rates again? – Preview

ECB members disagree about the rates outlook Key data releases including the June CPI figures A soft inflation report is unlikely to result in a dovish July ECB meeting Political risks keep the euro under pressure The ECB hawks are clearly upset It has been three weeks since the first ECB rate cut, and the situation feels very different to a traditional monetary policy easing cycle.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc.
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XM Research - 1 week agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – EURUSD rises slightly up after the battle with 8-week low

EURUSD holds in sideways move SMAs create bearish crossovers MACD continues to head south EURUSD tested the previous low of 1.0665 on Wednesday, holding within a narrow range of 1.0665-1.0720. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) posted a bearish crossover a few days after the death cross between the 20- and the 200-day SMAs, both hinting at more losses.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Is France headed for political stalemate and how bad is this for the euro?

Far-right National Rally party maintains lead ahead of June 30 first round of votes But can it secure an absolute majority as left-wing alliance makes progress? A hung parliament might be the worst outcome for the euro France in political turmoil President Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative vote hot on the heels of the European elections came as a complete shock not only in France but also across Europe, not to mention for financial markets.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Will the core PCE inflation persuade the Fed to cut rates? – Preview

US core PCE inflation index could resume downtrend Fed may ask more evidence before cutting interest rates EURUSD trades near key support zone. Is it time for an upside reversal?    Inflation could hit a new low in May Friday will see the release of the Fed’s favorite core PCE inflation measure at 12:30 GMT as the world’s largest central bank keeps looking for signs of sustained price stability around its 2.0% target almost a year after it paused its hiking cycle.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Technical Analysis – EURUSD retests 6-week low

EURUSD posts more losses 20- and 50-day SMA create another bearish cross RSI and MACD extend negative momentum EURUSD extended Tuesday’s losses and is currently re-challenging the six-week low of 1.0667 hit earlier this month. The RSI turned lower after entering the area below 50. At the moment, it continues to head lower in support of a negative short-term picture.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Market Comment – Stocks’ asthmatic reaction keeps dollar in demand

US stocks edge higher amidst quiet newsflow French elections are around the corner Aussie and loonie benefit from hotter CPI reports Yen remains under pressure Dollar records small gains against the euro The US dollar is trying to find its footing as the market prepares for Thursday’s presidential debate between Trump and Biden and Friday’s PCE inflation report.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD

US Core PCE index could affect EURUSD’s performance Canadian CPI expected to fall; USDCAD still falling AUDUSD may remain in range after Australian CPI US Core PCE price index --> EURUSD The main focus for traders this week will be the US core PCE price index for May, which is coming out on Friday. Also, the personal income and spending data and the final GDP figure will be released this week.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Market Comment – Busier calendar could support the dollar  

Richer US data calendar and Fedspeak today US stocks in the red again; uptrend intact Key inflation reports from both Canada and Australia Yen shows signs of life but still close to intervention level Dollar remains on the back foot The US dollar remains under pressure against the euro despite the relatively quiet newsflow. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee maintained his relatively dovish stance yesterday with the market focusing more on comments from San Francisco Fed Preside
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Dollar headed for third weekly gains as stock rally cools

Dollar stands tall after SNB cut and BoE’s dovish hold Yen enters intervention zone as Japan’s underlying inflation falls Euro slips on weak PMIs, US PMIs next in focus Nasdaq tumbles as Nvidia hit by profit taking ahead of triple witching Fed cut hopes not enough to dent the dollar The US dollar looks set to finish the week higher, extending its winning streak to a third week.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US PCE inflation the highlight of a relatively light agenda

Core PCE inflation to test bets of two Fed rate cuts in 2024 Yen awaits BoJ Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI Canadian CPI data also enters the spotlight   Will PCE data confirm Fed rate cut bets? Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions.
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