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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar sinks, gold surges as 50bps Fed cut back in the picture

Soft US PPI and reports of Fed dilemma revive bets of 50bps cut Dollar plunges as yields fall, pushing gold to new all-time high Euro climbs as ECB trims rates but does not signal October cut Fed rate cut expectations swing wildly Expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September had all been priced out by investors.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Quick Brief – Gold hits new record as rate cut fever takes hold

Gold surges after ECB rate cut and soft US PPI Sets new record as Fed poised to join rate-cut club Gold has finally smashed its previous all-time high of $2,531.61/oz to surpass the $2,550 mark. The precious metal had been poking and prodding at the $2,530 region since late August only to be held back by not-so-terrible US data. Nothing’s changed when it comes to the US economy to propel gold higher by more than 1.50% today.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Quick brief – ECB cuts interest rates by 25bps as expected

ECB cuts interest rates by 25bps to 3.5% ahead of next week's FOMC policy meeting EURUSD takes a slight boost as policymakers maintain a data-dependent approach   The ECB cut its refinancing deposit rate for the second time by 25bps to 3.5% and slashed its marginal lending facility rate by 60bps to 3.90%. The latter was a technical adjustment.
XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar firms after CPI, euro awaits ECB, techs lead equities rebound

US dollar edges up after CPI report wipes out 50-bps rate cut bets Euro stuck on the backfoot in wait for ECB decision Wall Street rebound gathers pace as tech stocks rally Mixed CPI report disappoints US inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in August, but the bigger-than-expected drop in the headline figure was overshadowed by an acceleration in the monthly core measure.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Quick Brief – US CPI data holds clue to upcoming Fed decision

US CPI climbed to 2.5% from 2.9% before 85% probability for 25bps rate cut Dollar rises ahead major currencies The release of the August US CPI data captured the attention of traders. The headline figure showed a slowdown to 2.5% from 2.9%, marking the lowest annual growth rate since February 2021. Meanwhile, the core CPI remained unchanged at 3.2%.
XM Research - 4 days ago

Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Quick Brief – Oil prices continue to dive after OPEC+ monthly report

OPEC+ anticipates increase of only 2.03 million bpd in 2024 WTI crude oil remains in strong bearish tendency Oil prices have fallen sharply since the start of September, with OPEC+ announcing today a second consecutive downward adjustment to its global oil demand growth projection for 2024. The revised projection anticipates an increase of 2.03 million barrels per day (bpd), lower than the previous estimate of 2.11 million bpd.
XM Research - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate  

Equities turn positive, but sentiment is fragile US presidential debate today could prove market moving UK labour market data supports the pound Bitcoin gains as risk sentiment improves, gold is range-bound Stocks breathe better US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confus
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar and equities rebound from NFP-led losses as focus turns to US CPI

US jobs report adds to slowdown fears but provides no clarity about Fed policy Dollar whipsaws while stocks tumble as ‘September effect’ takes hold But risk sentiment improves ahead of US CPI report and ECB decision Signs of optimism after NFP bloodbath Markets began the second week of September in a somewhat more upbeat mood as US slowdown jitters were put on hold even as inflation data out of China pointed to persistently weak demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – US jobs bounce back less than expected, dollar slips

US economy adds 142k jobs in August versus forecast of 160k But unemployment rate dips as wage growth accelerates   Nonfarm payrolls bounced back in August, rising by 142k, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as expected. However, the payrolls figure is below the consensus forecast of 160k jobs and the prior month’s reading of 114k was revised down to 89k, feeding doubts about the health of the US economy.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Investors lock gaze on NFP data

Dollar slides as data offer little respite to concerned investors NFP to accelerate somewhat, but PMI surveys pose downside risks S&P 500 and Dow Jones end in red ahead of the job numbers Gold rebounds, approaches record high; oil stabilizes Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – ISM non-mfg. PMI ticks up, but offers little relief

ISM non-mfg. PMI rises to 51.5 from 51.4 Prices charged and new orders improve, but employment cools This leaves some traders concerned ahead of tomorrow's NFP The ISM non-manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 from 51.4, with the prices paid and new orders subindices rising as well. However, employment cooled further, with the respective index falling to just a tenth above stagnation.
XM Research - 1 week ago

Quick Brief – US ADP numbers surprise to the downside

ADP employment prints at 99k, missing expectations Odds of 50bps Fed rate cut rise again USDJPY declines considerably The US ADP employment data published today revealed a lower-than-expected rise in private sector jobs; it rose to 99k from a revised 111k previously and is below the forecast of 145k. This reading is the lowest since 2021 and could have major implications for the dollar, the stock market and the Federal Reserve's possible rate decision.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick brief – US JOLTs disappoint, Wall Street trembles

US job openings fall to the lowest since April 2021 Bets for a 50bps rate cut increase Wall Street moves between gains and loses   US JOLTs job openings retreated to the lowest in three and a half years of 7.76 million in July compared to the forecast of 8.09 million and June’s negatively revised reading of 7.91 million. The data followed a negative surprise in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with investors further raising the odds for a double rate cut to 45% on concerns the econo
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Wall Street tumbles amid September blues

Yen and franc gain, aussie the main loser Wall Street tumbles on risk-off September start ISM mfg. PMI rekindles economic concerns Oil collapses on prospect of Libyan accord Risk aversion prevails The US dollar outperformed most of its major counterparts on Tuesday, losing ground only versus the traditional safe havens such as the yen and the franc.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – ISM mfg. PMI increases likelihood of a 50bps Fed rate cut

ISM manufacturing PMI misses forecast Dollar responds indecisively, stocks extend slide Probability of 50bps Fed rate cut in September increase The ISM manufacturing PMI increased to 47.2 from 46.8 but missed expectations of a rise to 47.5. with the details of the report providing a mixed picture. Prices paid rose to 54.0 from 52.9, but the closely watched new orders subindex declined to 44.6 from 47.6, which is the lowest since May 2023. The employment index inched up, but not eno
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar could suffer if the ISM survey disappoints

Markets are preparing for an action-packed week The US dollar is on the front foot following the bank holiday Focus turns to the ISM manufacturing survey today Gold drops, oil recovers but outlook remains mixed Focus on US data releases With US participants returning from the extended bank holiday weekend, the focus today will firmly be on the US data calendar.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – Oil prices slide, but supply concerns put a floor under prices

Oil slides on strong dollar, Chinese demand concerns arise But Libya and Middle East supply disruptions keep a floor beneath prices Oil prices finished last week in the red, tumbling on Friday perhaps due to the dollar’s recovery as well as worries regarding demand from China after OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, citing lower intake expectations from the world’s second-largest economy.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gains amid adjusted Fed rate cut bets

PCE inflation holds steady, 50bps cut less likely Euro slips as Eurozone inflation drops to lowest in three years Wall Street gains on soft-landing hopes Traders scale back Fed rate cut bets as NFP week begins The US dollar finished last week on a strong footing, gaining against all its major counter parts on Friday, with market participants somewhat scaling back their Fed rate cut bets.
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