Weak GDP data weighs on forint, US election in focus
By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk
WARSAW, Oct 31 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint was down on Thursday, hit by weak GDP data published the day before, while other central European currencies were stable ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was 0.4% weaker on the day at 409.1500 per euro at 0931 GMT.
"The forint weakened further after the weak GDP data, with its falls accelerating yesterday and the forint significantly decoupling from other currencies in the region," brokerage Equilor said in a note.
"The next stronger resistance comes around 414 while the level of 405 constitutes a support for the currency."
The dollar held steady on Thursday ahead of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September to be published later in the day and the closely watched non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
However, it is headed for its biggest monthly gain since April 2022 in October thanks to solid data which reduced expectations for a 50-basis point interest rate cut from the Fed.
A stronger dollar usually weights on central European currencies.
The Nov. 5 U.S. election has entered its final stretch, with opinion polls too close to call a winner. Investors have been putting on trades betting Republican candidate Donald Trump could be president again, although he is still neck and neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in several polls.
The zloty EURPLN= was unchanged at 4.3535 per euro, with Bank Millennium analysts saying they don't expect much volatility on Thursday ahead of a national holiday on Friday.
Polish CPI stood at 5.0% in October, flash data showed, in line with expectations.
Bank Millennium said the publication of debt supply for November later in the day could influence bond yields, with 10-year papers remaining at around 6.0% after the government announced amendments to this year's budget, raising the deficit to 240.3 billion zlotys ($59.95 billion) from the previously planned 184 billion.
The Czech crown was 0.1% weaker at 25.4000 per euro.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1031 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4000 | 25.3800 | -0.08% | -2.75% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 409.1500 | 407.6000 | -0.38% | -6.35% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3535 | 4.3540 | +0.01% | -0.21% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9749 | 4.9747 | -0.00% | -0.01% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 117.0500 | +0.10% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1648.55 | 1640.3600 | +0.50% | +16.59% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74065.59 | 73883.03 | +0.25% | +22.18% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2206.65 | 2230.54 | -1.07% | -5.82% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17420.40 | 17461.50 | -0.24% | +13.33% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5610 | 0.1390 | +122bps | +9bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7610 | -0.0270 | +146bps | -9bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0790 | 0.0200 | +165bps | -4bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9950 | 0.0840 | +266bps | +3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.6390 | 0.0400 | +333bps | -2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 6.0380 | 0.0670 | +360bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.84 | 3.58 | 3.42 | 4.08 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.57 | 6.52 | 6.42 | 6.45 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.74 | 5.35 | 5.03 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
($1 = 4.0085 zlotys)
Additional reporting by Krisztina Than in Budapest; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta
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