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Dollar stays lower after US jobs data; euro up ahead of French election

FOREX-Dollar stays lower after US jobs data; euro up ahead of French election Bitcoin falls on Mt. Gox liquidation fears Sterling up after UK election Eyes on French elections on Sunday Updates to 3:30 p.m. ET By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar index stayed slightly lower on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed marginally in June while the unemployment rate rose, underscoring the view the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in Septembe
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Dollar edges down after US jobs data; pound firm after UK election

FOREX-Dollar edges down after US jobs data; pound firm after UK election Updates to 10 a.m. ET By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed marginally in June while the unemployment rate rose, underscoring the view the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates in September.
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FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX stability and risk appetite hit premium No surprise to see FX option implied volatility under broad based pressure as risk appetite and a weaker USD leave FX subdued within well worn ranges. U.S. holiday-thinned markets played their part, as did the passing of Friday's U.S. NFP data close to expectations. GBP/USD benefits from the weaker USD with negligible support from the landslide win for the Labour party in the UK election, which had been widely expected .
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Dollar briefly adds to decline vs yen after US jobs data

FOREX-Dollar briefly adds to decline vs yen after US jobs data Updates to 8:45 a.m. By Caroline Valetkevitch NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - The dollar b riefly extended declines against the Japanese yen on Friday after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in June, albeit to a still-healthy pace, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. Against the Japanese yen =EBS>, the dollar w as last down 0.22% at 160.89. The dollar index =USD , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies includin
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Dollar weak ahead of US jobs data, pound firms after Labour landslide in UK election

FOREX-Dollar weak ahead of US jobs data, pound firms after Labour landslide in UK election Updates prices throughout By Iain Withers LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a three-week low on Friday ahead of U.S. payrolls data that could influence how quickly the Federal Reserve cuts interest rate s, while the pound firmed as the Labour party secured a landslide victory in the UK general election .
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Are FX options signaling complacency over French election risks?

BUZZ-COMMENT-Are FX options signaling complacency over French election risks? July 5 (Reuters) - The FX volatility upon which FX options thrive is an unknown, yet key parameter of their premiums, so dealers use implied volatility - their best guess. But this bellwether for real FX volatility expectations has almost erased all of the additional risk premium it had accumulated before the first round the of the French election and opens questions about complacency before Sunday's deciding second-ro
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Dollar weak ahead of US jobs data, pound firms after Labour landslide in UK election

FOREX-Dollar weak ahead of US jobs data, pound firms after Labour landslide in UK election By Iain Withers LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - The dollar was pinned near a three-week low on Friday ahead of payrolls data that could influence how quickly the Federal Reserve cuts rate, while the pound firmed as the Labour party surged to a landslide victory in the UK general election .
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

REFILE-BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead Adds link for July 5 FXO expiries to line 3 July 5 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some large strikes worth noting for Friday, July 5 , and for the week ahead.
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FX options wrap - AUD/USD 0.7000, JPY clues, UK election, cheap NFP

BUZZ-FX options wrap - AUD/USD 0.7000, JPY clues, UK election, cheap NFP The U.S. July 4 Independence Day holiday when combined with improved risk sentiment and the weaker dollar, has kept pressure on implied volatility on Thursday. Additional FX volatility premium for Friday's U.S. NFP data appears to be on the low side when comparing current overnight expiry implied volatility with prior levels, especially in EUR/USD .
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Franc bears get impetus from softer Swiss CPI

BUZZ-COMMENT-Franc bears get impetus from softer Swiss CPI July 4 (Reuters) - Doves are cooing for a third consecutive interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank following Thursday's softer than expected Swiss inflation data - which is music to the ears of franc bears. Swiss CPI unexpectedly dipped to 1.3% year-on-year in June, from 1.4% in May, when another 1.4% print was forecast.
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FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets Implied volatility is under pressure in most of the major G10 currency pairs, which is consistent with low realised volatility within familiar FX ranges. The impending U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and better risk appetite/USD losses, are playing their part . Euro-related FX option premiums have almost fully retraced the significant gains that were made in the wake of the French election call in mid-June.
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FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan While French election risk premiums have eased and UK election risk premiums are small, there's been a pick up in demand for USD call options since last weeks U.S. Presidential debate helped Trump's ratings. Euro related options have seen their volatility and EUR put over call premiums lowered since the first round of French election results.
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French election risk to euro, according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-French election risk to euro, according to FX options July 2 (Reuters) - When the French election was first called on June 9, there was a significant increase in FX option premium to reflect the volatility and directional risk to the euro, and these premiums remain a reliable bellwether. Volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in.
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FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk French elections have driven euro-related implied volatility to new long-term highs alongside EUR puts over call premiums on risk reversals, but there's been some relief selling after the first-round results. EUR/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility is back at 5.9 from 6.5 on Friday and a long-term peak at 7.75 in mid June.
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French stocks jump in post-election relief rally

UPDATE 4-French stocks jump in post-election relief rally Updates prices at 1430 GMT By Amanda Cooper LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - Banking shares led a surge in French stocks and the premium investors demand for holding the country's bonds plunged on Monday following a far-right win in Sunday's first round of voting that somewhat eased investors' uncertainty.
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FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead Overnight expiry euro related options have seen their FX volatility risk premiums increase since expiry now includes the first round results of the impending French elections. The premium/break-even for overnight EUR/USD opened in London around 70 USD pips - a new 2024 peak . There's a clear preference to own EUR/USD downside strikes as reflected by risk reversals - their EUR put over call implied volatility premiums saw a signi
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Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead June 28 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes worth noting for Friday June 28 and larger strikes for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes expiring on Monday are at 1.0685 on 1.3 billion euros and at 1.0700 on 2.6 billion euros.
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Swiss National Bank switches to forex purchases in first quarter

UPDATE 2-Swiss National Bank switches to forex purchases in first quarter Adds analysts' commentary in paragraphs 7-12 ZURICH, June 28 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank SNBN.S bought foreign currencies worth 281 million Swiss francs ($312.47 million) in the first quarter of 2024, it said on Friday, reversing its recent policy of selling forex to strengthen the franc.
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Strong franc to tee up more SNB rate cuts under Schlegel

BUZZ-COMMENT-Strong franc to tee up more SNB rate cuts under Schlegel June 27 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank looks set to deliver more interest rate cuts through the handover of the chairman's baton from Thomas Jordan to Martin Schlegel, provided the franc remains strong. Schlegel takes over on Oct. 1, a few days after the next SNB rate announcement, and will serve until 2027. Last week's SNB rate cut was delivered after the franc rose to a four-month high against the euro and a three-month
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FX options wrap - euro direction, JPY hedges, month-end, CNH

BUZZ-FX options wrap - euro direction, JPY hedges, month-end, CNH The USD is broadly higher on Wednesday and has supported most G10 FX option implied volatility curves. Month-end FX hedge rebalancing flows can add to volatility - models signal a mild need to sell the USD and buy EUR for June. Implied volatility in euro options expiring after the French election is well supported and euro puts retain a substantial premium to EUR calls since the election was announced, albeit now off their highs.
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