Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY
- ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps; EURUSD remains beneath 1.1000
- UK CPI could provide some clues for the next BoE decision; GBPUSD in weak mode
- US retail sales may lower chances for another Fed rate cut; USDJPY flirts with 149.35
ECB decision --> EURUSD
The upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday is this week's most anticipated event. Initially opposed by President Lagarde and her colleagues, the possibility of a rate decrease in October has gained traction among investors. . This change in stance came after poor PMIs and headline inflation fell below 2%.
The market is heavily betting on a 25 bps drop at Thursday's meeting, with additional expectations for a decrease in December. A mere quarter-point cut seems unlikely to destabilize the euro; should it occur, attention will swiftly shift to President Lagarde's press conference.
Currently, EURUSD is standing beneath the 1.0950 resistance level, and if the policymakers agree to delay the rate cut until December, the price could rechallenge the 1.1000 psychological mark and again meet the short-term uptrend line at 1.1050. Otherwise, a significant decline beneath the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which overlaps with the 1.0870 support, could drive the bears until the medium-term ascending line at 1.0830.
UK CPI data --> GBPUSD
This week's releases, notably Wednesday's UK CPI numbers, are expected to garner the attention of pound traders as they attempt to ascertain the Bank of England's future course of action. Investors are predicting a 25 bps reduction on November 7, with a significant 80% likelihood. The likelihood of an additional reduction in December is approximately 90%. The CPI figure is anticipated to decrease slightly from 2.2% y/y to 1.9%.
GBPUSD's momentum has been weakening over the last couple of sessions, remaining slightly above the 1.3000 round number. If the price climbs back above the 50-day SMA at 1.3100, it could add optimism for more bullish actions until the next resistance of 1.3235. In the negative scenario, a tumble below the 1.3000 handle and the long-term uptrend line at 1.2920 could take traders until the 200-day SMA at 1.2790.
US retail sales --> USDJPY
Since investors are getting nervous about the possibility of the Fed easing policy at a slower rate than what is currently priced in, a US retail sales report that is better than expected might not be well received by the markets. This is because it would make rate-cut bets even less likely. After a 0.1% rise the previous month, analysts expect a 0.3% month-over-month rise in September.
USDJPY is flirting with the previous peak of 149.35, which seems to be a real struggle for the bulls. The price looks bullish in the very short term, but a jump above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level of the down leg from 161.94 to 139.56 at 150.75 and the 200-day SMA at 151.20 would endorse this look. However, a drop below the 146.50-147.15 support region and below the bullish cross within the 20- and 50-day SMAs near the 23.6% Fibonacci of 144.80 could shift the outlook to a neutral one.
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