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Reuters - 40 minutes ago

Franc bears get impetus from softer Swiss CPI

BUZZ-COMMENT-Franc bears get impetus from softer Swiss CPI July 4 (Reuters) - Doves are cooing for a third consecutive interest rate cut from the Swiss National Bank following Thursday's softer than expected Swiss inflation data - which is music to the ears of franc bears. Swiss CPI unexpectedly dipped to 1.3% year-on-year in June, from 1.4% in May, when another 1.4% print was forecast.
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Reuters - 2 hours ago

UK election risk to GBP, according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-UK election risk to GBP, according to FX options July 4 (Reuters) - Implied volatility gauges FX realised volatility expectations and is a key component of an FX option premium. Overnight expiry GBP related implied volatility now includes the UK election and is therefore a bellwether for related FX volatility risk. Overnight GBP/USD implied volatility has averaged 7.5 over recent sessions - a premium/break-even of 40 USD pips in either direction for a simple vanilla straddle.
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Reuters - 20 hours ago

FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets

BUZZ-FX options wrap - FX outlook, French risk, ZAR gains, yuan bets Implied volatility is under pressure in most of the major G10 currency pairs, which is consistent with low realised volatility within familiar FX ranges. The impending U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and better risk appetite/USD losses, are playing their part . Euro-related FX option premiums have almost fully retraced the significant gains that were made in the wake of the French election call in mid-June.
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Reuters - 23 hours ago

The FX outlook according to options

BUZZ-COMMENT-The FX outlook according to options July 3 (Reuters) - FX options are forward looking and thrive on FX volatility and directional moves, so their price action and trade flows can offer clues on the perceived FX outlook. Implied volatility gauges the unknown realised volatility risk, which is key to an option premium - it's on the back foot in many of the most commonly traded G10 currency pairs.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections risk, billions, JPY hedge, yuan While French election risk premiums have eased and UK election risk premiums are small, there's been a pick up in demand for USD call options since last weeks U.S. Presidential debate helped Trump's ratings. Euro related options have seen their volatility and EUR put over call premiums lowered since the first round of French election results.
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Reuters - 2 days ago

French election risk to euro, according to FX options

BUZZ-COMMENT-French election risk to euro, according to FX options July 2 (Reuters) - When the French election was first called on June 9, there was a significant increase in FX option premium to reflect the volatility and directional risk to the euro, and these premiums remain a reliable bellwether. Volatility is an unknown yet key component of an FX option premium, so dealers use implied volatility as a stand-in.
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Reuters - 3 days ago

FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Election pricing, JPY fears, ZAR risk French elections have driven euro-related implied volatility to new long-term highs alongside EUR puts over call premiums on risk reversals, but there's been some relief selling after the first-round results. EUR/USD 1-month expiry implied volatility is back at 5.9 from 6.5 on Friday and a long-term peak at 7.75 in mid June.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

US dollar slightly weaker on diminishing inflation

FOREX-US dollar slightly weaker on diminishing inflation U.S. PCE index unchanged in May, up 2.6% year-on-year Chicago PMI index rises in June Fed funds futures slightly lift rate cut chances in September Dollar/yen up nearly 6% on the month, 1.9% on the quarter Euro on track for biggest monthly fall since January Adds new comment, graphics, updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

US dollar modestly weaker on receding inflation

FOREX-US dollar modestly weaker on receding inflation U.S. PCE index unchanged in May, up 2.6% year-on-year Chicago PMI index rises in June Fed funds futures slightly lift rate cut chances in September Dollar/yen up nearly 6% on the month Euro on track for biggest monthly fall since January Adds new comment, data on U.S. consumer sentiment, Chicago PMI; updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

US dollar weakens vs yen as inflation moderates

FOREX-US dollar weakens vs yen as inflation moderates U.S. PCE index unchanged in May, up 2.6% year-on-year Fed funds futures slightly lift rate cut chances in September Dollar/yen up nearly 6% on the month Euro on track for biggest monthly fall since January Adds new comment, inflation details, bullets, byline, FX table; updates prices By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - The U.S.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead

BUZZ-FX options wrap - Elections, intervention and data risks ahead Overnight expiry euro related options have seen their FX volatility risk premiums increase since expiry now includes the first round results of the impending French elections. The premium/break-even for overnight EUR/USD opened in London around 70 USD pips - a new 2024 peak . There's a clear preference to own EUR/USD downside strikes as reflected by risk reversals - their EUR put over call implied volatility premiums saw a signi
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead

BUZZ-COMMENT-Stand-out FX option strike expiries for the week ahead June 28 (Reuters) - The cash hedging of soon-to-expire FX option strikes can have a magnetic effect on FX price action and add to nearby support/resistance. There are some huge strikes worth noting for Friday June 28 and larger strikes for the week ahead. Stand-out EUR/USD strikes expiring on Monday are at 1.0685 on 1.3 billion euros and at 1.0700 on 2.6 billion euros.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Huge demand for one particular French election hedge

BUZZ-COMMENT-Huge demand for one particular French election hedge June 28 (Reuters) - There has been a significant increase in premium and demand for an array of Euro related FX options since the announcement of impending French elections, but one particular trade stands out - risk reversals. Risk reversals are simple vanilla FX options that consist of a put strike set against a call strike - the right to sell a currency versus buy it.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

France's snap election: Five questions for markets

GRAPHIC-France's snap election: Five questions for markets Updates with fresh French selloff on Friday throughout, adds new comment in paragraph 7 By Yoruk Bahceli and Samuel Indyk June 28 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron's shock decision to call a snap election, which polls suggest the far right could win, has rocked financial markets , exacerbating fiscal sustainability concerns in the euro zone's second-largest economy.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Dollar will rise if safer assets draw investors

BUZZ-COMMENT-Dollar will rise if safer assets draw investors June 28 (Reuters) - Crude oil has shot higher by $10/bbl this month , challenging expectations for interest rate cuts, and potentially undermining extremely elevated stock markets. Should this fuel risk aversion, the dollar will rise as investors are drawn to safer assets. This year stocks have soared regardless of a number of risk averse situations that would otherwise have sent them lower, and have partly done so because investors ex
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Swiss National Bank switches to forex purchases in first quarter

UPDATE 2-Swiss National Bank switches to forex purchases in first quarter Adds analysts' commentary in paragraphs 7-12 ZURICH, June 28 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank SNBN.S bought foreign currencies worth 281 million Swiss francs ($312.47 million) in the first quarter of 2024, it said on Friday, reversing its recent policy of selling forex to strengthen the franc.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

France's snap election: Five questions for markets

GRAPHIC-France's snap election: Five questions for markets By Yoruk Bahceli and Samuel Indyk June 28 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron's shock decision to call a snap election, which polls suggest the far right could win, has rocked financial markets , exacerbating fiscal sustainability concerns in the euro zone's second-largest economy.
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Reuters - 6 days ago

Political risk aversion rubs its eyes: Mike Dolan

REFILE-RPT-COLUMN-Political risk aversion rubs its eyes: Mike Dolan Fixes grammatical error in paragraph 3 By Mike Dolan LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - If greater political uncertainty necessarily begets higher financial volatility, world markets are still half asleep - but the alarm clock may be set nonetheless. With a blizzard of political risks on the horizon, financial markets seem reluctant to second-guess hard outcomes - or material impacts on the economic, fiscal or corporate worlds that mig
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Strong franc to tee up more SNB rate cuts under Schlegel

BUZZ-COMMENT-Strong franc to tee up more SNB rate cuts under Schlegel June 27 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank looks set to deliver more interest rate cuts through the handover of the chairman's baton from Thomas Jordan to Martin Schlegel, provided the franc remains strong. Schlegel takes over on Oct. 1, a few days after the next SNB rate announcement, and will serve until 2027. Last week's SNB rate cut was delivered after the franc rose to a four-month high against the euro and a three-month
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Reuters - 1 week ago

Swiss franc may seize crown yen has worn for years

BUZZ-COMMENT-Swiss franc may seize crown yen has worn for years June 27 (Reuters) - With Switzerland's central bank easing monetary policy while Japan's tightens, the Swiss franc may seize the crown that Japan's yen has worn for years as the king of funding currencies. Although the gap between the nations' interest rates still favours the franc, where the policy rate is 1.25% compared to 0.1% for the yen, it could soon narrow to as little as 0.50%.
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